You can measure attendance. You can measure TV ratings. But how do you measure satisfaction?
You can hear boos and read tweets and other social media posts — but how do you know if an entire fan base is ready to revolt?
Maybe you can't. Maybe, in that situation, you just have to rely on feel. And currently, the feeling is this: If the Mariners don't make the playoffs, the die-hards will be clamoring for changes with a fervor we haven't seen for a while.
As much joy as the Mariners brought Seattle by breaking their 21-year playoff drought in 2022, that's still just one postseason appearance since manager Scott Servais and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto joined the franchise before the 2016 season. All but four teams have reached the playoffs at least once during that span.
And that last M's appearance ended in a three-game sweep by the Astros in the American League Division Series. Valiant effort, for sure, but not a satiating run for fans with a postseason-entrance rate under 5 percent since 2002.
Compounding all this was last year's postseason news conference in which Dipoto suggested the team was doing the fans a favor in asking for patience with the roster-building, adding that teams that win 54% of the time over a decade's time will end up in the World Series.
Dipoto later apologized for the comments (which, in my opinion, were more clumsy than they were dismissive of fans' concerns), but it will likely take another playoff appearance for the public to forgive and forget. The postseason might also be necessary for fans to let slide the fact that the Mariners are in the bottom half of MLB payroll for the fifth straight season.
But hey, fangraphs.com projects them as tied for the fifth best team in baseball (although four games worse than the Astros). And if healthy — a giant if — their roster appears better than last year.
At second base, they've added Jorge Polanco, who in his last healthy season (2021) hit .269 with 33 home runs. At DH, they've added Mitch Garver, who had 19 home runs in 87 games last season and is less likely to injure himself now that he won't be catching (often, at least). In right field, they've brought back Mitch Haniger, who had 39 home runs for the Mariners in 2021 before two straight seasons in which he played 61 games or fewer.
The M's are hoping that each member of that trio have Michael Penix Jr.-like bounce backs, where they show that, while they have been injury prone, they are not perpetually injured. Such a result isn't that far-fetched.
And, of course, there is Julio Rodriguez — the third-year center fielder who's proven himself to be one of the top five players in the American League. And catcher Cal Raleigh, who's had the third most Wins Above Replacement (8.8) among catchers in MLB over the past two years. And a starting rotation featuring Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, who were all part of a team that finished first in American League ERA last season.
Are the Mariners loaded the way the Braves or Dodgers are? No. Can they play at or above the level that has seen them go 90-72, 90-72 and 88-74 over the past three seasons? Absolutely.
Perhaps a better question, however, is: What would constitute a successful season for Seattle?
We know that there is an element of randomness once it comes to making the 12-team playoff. Arizona was 84-78 last year and made it to the World Series. Texas was 90-72 and won the World Series. Not one of the teams with a top-five record reached the NL or AL championship series.
So perhaps a playoff spot would be satisfactory. Or would it be the first AL West title since 2001? Or would it mean the Mariners no longer being the only team in MLB to have never reached the World Series.
I'd say the postseason would be enough. But I haven't been sitting by for two decades waiting for a division crown, or nearly five decades waiting for a World Series appearance. And I'm not one of the fans Dipoto said should be grateful for the front office's patience.
The patience around here is all but used up when it comes to this team. The M's better deliver. If they implode, fans will explode.
