Despite it being mid-June, the Cowlitz River and other rivers off the Cascades were entering action stages on Friday morning with the Cowlitz forecast to hit just around the minor flood stage Saturday.
The affected rivers were expected to recede during the day on Saturday, according to a report by the National Weather Service (NWS).
Brent Bower, a hydrologist with NWS, told The Chronicle the Cowlitz was at its highest June 10 level in recorded history.
The good news, according to Lewis County Division of Emergency Management Deputy Director Ross McDowell, is as of Friday morning NWS had the river forecasted a foot-and-a-half over the actual height from where it’s been noted by folks out in Randle. But, it’s still a lot of water, and it may continue rising, he said.
Bower attributed the June near-flooding to a combination of warmer weather melting mountain snowpack and the heavy rainfall brought on this week throughout Western Washington by an atmospheric river.
He added that this combination can occasionally bring the rivers to levels even higher than winter time, which means a moderate, rather than heavy rainfall, can push them over the banks.
“We are expecting another round of rain this afternoon and overnight tonight,” Bower said on Friday morning.
When those hit, he said the Cowlitz and to lesser extents, the Chehalis and Newaukum rivers would be affected. He said the likelihood of the Chehalis and Newaukum reaching even the action flood stage was slim, though. The action stage is one level below the “minor” flood category.
“We don’t ever see moderate or major floods this time of year,” Bower said. “But when we get something like this it’s because the rivers are higher than usual. That being said, it is relatively rare; it doesn't happen often. … This is an atmospheric river event and we typically don’t see them this time of year.”
While there was a total of another inch of rain forecast for the next 24 hours on Friday morning, McDowell said that would likely not be enough to bring the river to a flood stage.
“So they’ve over forecasted, it looks like,” McDowell said. “Unless we get some kind of bad downpour that’s going to be extraordinary.”
The Cowlitz at Packwood, upstream of Randle, had already peaked on Friday morning and was not supposed to rise any more, McDowell said.
Some of the river’s tributaries join between Packwood and Randle, but McDowell still didn’t think there would be enough additional water to bring it to any flooding category.
“I don’t think state Route 131 will get it, they might get some water in the golf course there,” he said. “I don’t want to say that’s ‘normal.’ That’s kind of normal, but not for this time of year. … We’re anxiously awaiting summer.”
Current river gage readings can be accessed online at https://rivers.lewiscountywa.gov/#/.
