Flood Warning Update: Rain Lets Up, River Forecasts Adjusted Down

Posted

1 p.m., March 1, Update:  Flood Warning Update: Rain Lets Up, River Forecasts Adjusted Down

By Isabel Vander Stoep / isabel@chronline.com

Lewis County residents may be catching some rays this afternoon as the heavy rain of the last two days begins to let up. As of 1 p.m. Tuesday, The Chronicle had received no reports from the Lewis County Swift Water Rescue Team. In this case, no news may be good news.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is now forecasting the Cowlitz River at Randle to crest in the minor flood stage around 4 p.m. Tuesday, after it was originally predicted on Monday to reach the major flood stage. This is good news for East Lewis County, as U.S. Highway 12 is not expected to be inundated with flood water, according to the Lewis County Department of Emergency Management (DEM). 

The Cowlitz at Packwood has had no flooding. Although it was forecast on Monday to reach the minor flood stage, the forecast has since been adjusted down.

The Newaukum River near Chehalis crested around 10 a.m. on Tuesday morning in the NWS’s moderate flood category, taking over parts of Hamilton Road in Napavine. It is forecast to recede throughout the day. A farmer on Hamilton Road told The Chronicle his cows made their way to the top of a bark pile — also known as a critter pad — to stay out of the river’s rising path overnight.

The Chehalis River is covering part of state Route 6 near Twin Oaks Road in Adna, but the road is not yet closed. Water over roadway warnings have been set up on both sides of the inundated area.

The Skookumchuck River at Centralia and the Chehalis River at Centralia are forecast to reach the action stage — the flood phase before the minor category — and crest around 10 p.m. Tuesday.

The Chehalis River near Grand Mound, at around noon on Tuesday, crossed into the minor flood level and is forecast to crest just into the moderate stage around 4 a.m. on Wednesday. 

The Chehalis River at Doty and the Nisqually River near National have both crested, according to DEM.

State Route 7 between Morton and Mineral is closed to all but local traffic, check out the Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT) Twitter for updates. There is no estimated time for its reopening as of 1 p.m. Tuesday.

The Lewis County Sheriff’s Office and Washington State Patrol will now be issuing citations for people who ignore road closure signs. According to the DEM: “Turn around. Don’t Drown.”

For a full list of Lewis County road closures visit https://roads.lewiscountywa.gov/.

All river levels can be monitored here at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sew 

Some roads in Lewis County are being impacted by surface water flooding and are closed.  The DEM posts updates on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100072464765616. 

11:45 a.m., March 1, Update:

From the Lewis County Division of Emergency Management: 

Lewis County updates flood warnings for March 1

Here are the updates to the flood warnings and river levels for Lewis County.

The projection for the Cowlitz River at Randle now shows the river is set to crest in the Minor stage of flooding at 4 p.m. today. This is an adjustment down from an earlier Major stage projection. At this time, the flooding is not expected to impact U.S. Hwy 12.

The Newaukum River near Chehalis has recently crested in the Moderate flood stage and is expected to begin receding.

The Skookumchuck River at Centralia is now predicted to reach Action stage later today, and crest at 187 ft. at 10 p.m. tonight.

At the time of this release the Chehalis River at Centralia is crossing into the Action stage, and is set to crest in that stage at 10 p.m. tonight.

The Chehalis River near Grand Mound is currently crossing into the Minor stage level and is set to crest just at the Moderate stage level at 4 a.m. tomorrow.

The Chehalis at Doty and the Nisqually near National have both crested. The Cowlitz at Packwood has no flooding.

All river levels can be closely monitored here: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sew

Some roads in Lewis County are being impacted by surface water flooding and are closed. For a full list of country road closures and openings visit https://roads.lewiscountywa.gov/

In the case of road closures, do NOT drive around road close signs. They are there for a reason. Do not walk, swim, or drive through flood water. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!

Follow Lewis County Division of Emergency Management on Facebook for timely updates here: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100072464765616

10:30 a.m., March 1, Update: 

Projections for major flooding on the Cowlitz River have been reduced according to the latest update from the National Weather Service. Here's where local rivers stand this morning: 

••• 

Major flooding is predicted and a flood warning has been issued for the Cowlitz River at Randle as heavy rain continues to batter Western Washington. 

The Chehalis, Skookumchuck and Newaukum rivers are also expected to reach or exceed minor to moderate flood stages at various locations. 

The most current forecast has the Cowlitz rising from just into the action stage up to major flooding in just over 12 hours, with a crest in the major flood category forecast for 10 a.m. Tuesday. The Cowlitz at Packwood is forecast to climb into the action stage at 4 a.m. on Tuesday.

There was a welcome break in the rain at Randle on Monday evening, said Lewis County Department of Emergency Management (DEM) Deputy Director Ross McDowell, but it was “raining like a big dog in Packwood,” last he had spoken with the Packwood fire chief. 

The heavy rainfall may cause landslides and washouts. Fortunately, there have been no signs of those or of increased avalanche risk at White Pass reported to McDowell, he said on Monday night. 

A telltale sign of potential landslides, according to McDowell, is water coming out of hillsides and pouring from the ground. People should also be on the lookout for leaning trees, small slides and any movement of earth.

The river’s forecasted steep climb toward major flooding is not likely to have an impact on landslides, he said, but that the landslide risk is mostly from rain itself penetrating and destabilizing the ground.   

Because the Cowlitz at Randle flooded in November of 2021, residents in the area have mostly learned when they need to evacuate, McDowell said. Regardless, the Lewis County Sheriff’s Office and nearby fire departments have their Swift Water Rescue Team on standby and are in touch with locals in at-risk areas.

“You don’t want to try to move out of your place at zero dark thirty. If you see this coming it would have been better for you to move out before that, right?” McDowell said. 

Certain residents of the Randle area were contacted by DEM on Sunday with information about potential flooding, and most of the flood water from the Cowlitz will inundate farm lands long before it enters homes. 

U.S. Highway 12 being closed due to flooding is a possibility. Updates on road closures can be found via the Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT) Twitter or at https://roads.lewiscountywa.gov/. 

The Lewis County Sheriff’s Office and Washington State Patrol will now be issuing citations for people who ignore road closure signs. According to the DEM: “Turn around. Don’t Drown.”

For more detailed information from NWS on river forecasts, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php and select the river gauge nearest to the area of interest. Keep an eye on river levels in Lewis County at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sew. The DEM also posts timely updates on its Facebook page.

Sandbag stations were set up in the area on Monday morning at the following locations: 

  • Area 7 Kiona Shop, 8911 U.S. Highway 12, Randle
  • Randle Fire Station, 9978 U.S. Highway, Randle
  • Lewis County Sandbag Station, 19 SW Cascade Ave., Chehalis, Use side door to enter.  
  • Napavine Fire Station,115 E. Washington St., Napavine, Rear of building.