If Canada retaliates against Trump tariffs, how would it impact Washington state? 

Posted

After President Donald Trump announced a set of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, the two countries shot back with plans for tariffs of their own on imports from the U.S.

The first round of Canada's retaliatory tariff was slated to go into effect Feb. 4 and applied to beer, liquor, wine, coffee, appliances, shoes and clothing, cosmetics and certain foods. Some provinces had announced plans to remove American liquor from their shelves.

What seemed like a budding trade war was put on pause Monday, when the countries agreed to put their respective tariffs on hold for 30 days in exchange for increased their border security efforts.

How important are exports to Canada for the Washington economy?

If the tariffs do go into effect, it could have a significant impact on states that border Canada, like Washington, which rely on their northern neighbor as a trade partner. In 2023, Washington exported over $9.4 billion worth of goods to Canada, while importing almost $19.9 billion, according to data sent to McClatchy by the Washington State Department of Commerce.

With over 15% of the state's exports going over the northern border, a retaliatory tariff imposed by Canada could shake up Washington's economy — the Office of the United States Trade Representative estimates that exports support 147,000 jobs in the state.

"International partnerships are a cornerstone of our economy, and many businesses are deeply concerned about how these tariffs could disrupt their operations," Washington State Department of Commerce Director Joe Nguyen said in a statement given to McClatchy.

Here are the industries in Washington that rely the most on exports to Canada.

Fuel, aircraft among top Washington exports to Canada

According to the state's Department of Commerce, the leading export to Canada from Washington is mineral fuels and oil, accounting for $1.6 billion worth of exports in 2023.

Through November 2024, Washington had exported $1.2 billion worth of fuel and oil. That's still just a fraction of the roughly $10 billion worth of fuel and oil Washington imports from Canada.

Nuclear reactors and boilers accounted for $1.3 billion in exports to Canada in 2023, the second most of any category, and $1.1 billion through November 2023.

Aerospace crafts and parts was Washington's third largest export to Canada in 2023, accounting for $861 million, but saw a sharp drop in 2024. Through November, Washington had exported just $303 million worth of goods in that category.

Electrical machinery and equipment was just behind, at $702 million worth of exports in 2023. That number also fell significantly in 2024, although not quite as much — it stood at $457 million through November.

Paper accounted for the fifth-most exports of any category, at $421 million, in 2023 while lumber was right behind it at $346 million.

Other top Washington state exports to Canada

Here are Washington's other top exports to Canada, according to Washington's Department of Commerce. 2023 estimates account for the entire year while the 2024 data only goes through November.

  • Tractors: $313 million in 2023 and $291 million in 2024
  • Plastics: $307 million in 2023 and $270 million in 2024
  • Toys, games and sports equipment: $247 million in 2023 and $159 million in 2024
  • Vehicles for transporting goods: $218 million in 2023 and $151 million in 2024
  • Optical equipment, including photographic, cinemotagraphic and surgical instruments: $216 million in 2023 and $179 million in 2024
  • Chemical products: $184 million in 2023 and $205 million in 2024
  • Furniture: $149 million in 2023 and $98 million in 2024
  • Apples: $132 million in 2023 and $112 million in 2024

Top Washington agricultural exports to Canada

Sen. Maria Cantwell's office published additional numbers on specific agricultural products exported to Canada.

According to the data, Washington top agricultural export to Canada was fish and seafood, at $321 million in 2023, followed by apples at $132 million — the Department of Commerce data didn't include a seafood category and instead had separate numbers for each type of seafood.

Onions accounted for $70 million in exports, followed by frozen fruit at $63 million and fresh cherries at $57 million.

© 2025 The Bellingham Herald (Bellingham, Wash.). Visit www.bellinghamherald.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.