Letter to the Editor: We Can’t Compare COVID-19 to Flu

We are writing in response to the letter by Shawn Murphy who complained about Gov. Jay Inslee’s actions in response to COVID-19. It is unclear exactly what he is complaining about, but Murphy seems to think the governor is overreacting. He bases his opinion on the H1N1 influenza virus in 2009 and by doing so, he completely misses the point. COVID-19 is a new virus for which there is no vaccine and to which no one has immunity.  

Scientists know quite a lot about the influenza virus and generally what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about COVID-19. Influenza cases will go down in March and April but it is not yet known if the same will be true of COVID-19. So far this flu season, approximately 1 percent of people with the flu in the US have had to be hospitalized. A preliminary study this month (from the CDC) found that 12 percent of people in the U.S. with COVID-19 have had to be hospitalized so far.

The death rate during a typical flu season is 0.1 percent (and the CDC website confirms we are on track for the same this season). The death rate so far from COVID-19 varies from country to country and within different populations, but the general rate is significantly higher than from the flu. In China, the overall death rate has been 2.9 percent, which is almost 30 times higher than from the flu. In people over 80, the death rate has been 14.8 percent.

With the seasonal flu, each infected person infects 1.3 new people while a person infected with COVID-19 is so far thought to infect two to three other people.

But enough of statistics, which are changing by the hour. Does Shawn Murphy watch/read only local Washington news? Gov. Inslee is not the only governor closing schools, restaurants, various events, etc. As I write this letter, 46 states are taking the same actions (the other four states have closed schools, etc. only in certain districts). And countries all across the world are also taking the same actions, some even closing their entire country. Additionally, the health care systems of various countries, including places in the US, are becoming overwhelmed. If this happens, there will not be enough hospital beds, ventilators, doctors, nurses, etc. to care for all the patients. The point is, we do not know how COVID-19 is going to react. You can’t compare it to a virus from the past (and it is interesting Shawn Murphy didn’t discuss the influenza pandemic of 1918 in which 50-100 million people across the world died, including approximately 670,000 in the US). We won’t get a second chance to get this virus under control if we let it get ahead of us.

Frank and Susan Hackett

Onalaska