RENTON — Of all the upsets Geno Smith has pulled as the Seahawks quarterback, this one may be the biggest: Smith has lasted longer as Seattle's starter than Russell Wilson did as Denver's.
The odds of that seemed so long the day the trade was made on March 8, 2022, that even the most brazen Las Vegas sportsbook would probably have declined to take a bet on it.
It may be worth remembering Smith wasn't even under contract at that time — he didn't sign a one-year deal to stay with the Seahawks until mid-April.
And when Smith finally did put pen to paper, there was no assurance he'd be the starter, with the Seahawks proclaiming there would be an open competition between Smith and Drew Lock to replace Wilson (while also holding open the idea they could draft a QB).
It was a situation that impressed few around the league.
"This is the most embarrassing, saddest, pathetic quarterback competition of all time between Drew Lock and Geno Smith," Adam Schein of the CBS Sports Network bellowed in August 2022. "It's brutal. ... The Seahawks are a disaster, and this is where hope goes to die."
But here we are, basically 16 months since that sentiment was aired — one which was likely expressed privately in some team offices around the league — and it's Smith who has Seattle on the doorstep of a second straight playoff appearance (with Lock helping out ably this year) and Wilson potentially having taken his last snap with Denver.
And Smith not only has led Seattle to some unexpected success the past two years — he has a 16-15 win-loss record with the Seahawks compared with Wilson's 11-19 in Denver — but he has also won over coaches and teammates alike with the way he has handled the responsibilities of the position.
Maybe never more so than over the last three weeks when Smith sat for two games due to a groin injury but was perceived by everyone as going above and beyond in his support of Lock, then returning Sunday and leading a last-minute drive to beat the Titans in Tennessee, a victory critical in keeping Seattle's playoff hopes alive.
"It's a real memorable span of time there with one of my all-time favorite guys," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said Wednesday. "I'm glad we made it through it and loved the success he was able to show last week."
Carroll made that comment a few hours after news broke that Wilson had been benched. Who knows if that was on his mind at all as he said it?
But Carroll didn't hold back in his praise of Smith when asked what makes him one of his "all-time favorite guys," referring to Smith's perseverance in the face of seven seasons as a backup before getting another shot to start, including the 2019-21 seasons behind Wilson.
"I love his story," Carroll said. "He's taught me so much, and I admire him for the way he's handled the competitive part of this thing. He's taught us about belief in yourself and how powerful that is. As clear as an illustration of anybody that I can ever remember. Forget this year or last year — he was the same guy every time out and just kept hanging. I probably didn't give him enough credit, because I probably didn't believe it. Maybe he was kind of faking it; he was saying the right stuff. [But] he meant it, man. He was on it, and he proved it. That's what last year was all about. He proved that his confidence in himself and belief and conviction was real."
All of which may make it easy to forget that Smith's Seattle future isn't totally assured.
True, Smith signed a three-year contract that was widely reported as worth up to $105 million last March.
But once the hype died down and the fine print was revealed, it became clear Smith's contract is basically a year-to-year proposition, with Seattle having the ability to get out of it after this season and paying him $27.3 million.
The contract features a unique structure that includes dates in 2024 and 2025 by which the Seahawks have to essentially decide to keep Smith — and a set of incentives that will determine how much Smith could make in each of those seasons.
Specific to the 2024 season, Smith's $12.7 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is still on the roster on the fifth day of the new league year waiver period — or, five days after the Super Bowl. That date is Feb. 16.
That's a decision Seattle will obviously have to make before the draft, and before it might also know what other QBs could become available in free agency.
Former NFL agent Joel Corry, who now writes on league financial matters for CBSSports.com, says any question about Seattle's QB situation in 2024 will be clear by then.
"If they don't cut him before then, they are going forward with him in 2024," Corry said.
Smith is also guaranteed a $9.6 million roster bonus if he is on the roster on the fifth day of the new league year, which this year is March 17.
He has a similar $10 million roster bonus in March of 2025.
Each roster bonus can increase by up to $15 million if Smith hits certain statistical numbers during each of the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Those include $2 million incentives for matching or bettering each of his 2022 statistics in five categories:
— passing yards, 4,282;
— touchdown passes, 30;
— completion percentage, 69.755%;
— passer rating, 100.874;
— and for the Seahawks making the playoffs or winning at least 10 regular-season games with Smith taking at least 80% of the snaps.
There is also an additional $5 million if Smith hits all of those incentives and Seattle makes the Super Bowl.
With two games remaining, Smith seems likely to hit only one of those incentives — making the playoffs and playing at least 80% of the snaps. Seattle is assured of the playoffs if it wins its last two games and also has many ways to make it at 9-8.
The others he won't logically match, as he has 3,145 yards, 17 touchdowns, a 64.8% completion percentage and a 90.4 passer rating.
Still, a playoff berth and the required snaps would push Smith's roster bonus to $11.6 million and mean Seattle paying him $24.3 million in 2024 with a cap hit that would rise to $33.2 million.
That's a hefty jump from his $10.1 million cap hit for this season, when he had a base salary of just $1.2 million, having also been paid a signing bonus of $26.1 million.
Smith's current projected $31.2 million cap hit for 2024 ranks 12th among all QBs. A jump to $33.2 million for hitting at least the playoff escalator would move him to 10th — just ahead of Baltimore's Lamar Jackson ($32.4 million) and just behind Wilson's $35.4 million (which Denver will take regardless).
Seattle may also have to ante up some more to keep Lock, who can be a free agent after signing a one-year, $4 million deal last March — but who may also want to explore opportunities where he'd have a better chance to play.
Wilson's Denver tenure, though, may only reinforce for all involved the value of stability and knowing what you have.
