Washington state needs to add more than 648,000 homes for those at the lowest income levels over the next 20 years to meet projected needs, according to a new report.
In all, the state must add 1.1 million homes at a pace of at least 50,000 new units per year to keep up with expected population growth, the Washington state Department of Commerce announced in a report released Thursday.
The state's population topped 7.8 million residents in 2022, according to the state Office of Financial Management. That number is expected to reach 9.5 million by 2044.
The new projections follow a 2021 amendment to the state's Growth Management Act that requires counties to consider income levels as they plan for future housing. The results suggest many communities will have to prioritize affordable housing options going forward.
That means incorporating more apartments, condominiums, moderate density housing such as duplexes, and accessory dwelling units, said Dave Anderson, managing director of the Growth Management Services unit.
"Planning for housing in the next 20 years will require an inclusive and equity-driven approach if we are to meet the housing needs for all the residents at all income levels," Anderson said.
Thurston County must add at least 52,456 housing units by 2044, according to the report. About 28,410 of those units must be affordable for people who earn up to 80% of area median income, according to the data.
That projection includes 3,591 units of permanent supportive housing for people at risk of or experiencing homelessness.
In addition, the report indicates Thurston County needs 921 more units of temporary or emergency housing. These units provide a safety net for people in unstable housing situations, such as those in-between jobs or exiting the foster care system.
In June, the state determined the county population surpassed 300,000. By 2044, the county's population is projected to reach 386,060, according to the OFM.
About 122,469 units of permanent supportive housing and 91,360 units of emergency housing will be needed across the state, according to the report.
Commerce defines affordability by the principle that housing and utilities should not cost more than 30% of a household income. About 30% of Washingtonians are cost-burdened, meaning they pay more than 30% for housing, according to federal data.
Tedd Kelleher, housing policy director, said Commerce used census data, homeless data and more sources to develop its findings. The results suggest widespread housing issues.
"Every community in the state is experiencing housing pressures and needs to plan for enough housing so that everyone can live inside," Keller said.
Keller said communities cannot rely on the private market to produce housing for the lowest income brackets. Instead, he said this effort will necessitate "significant" local, state and federal investments.
The release says many communities will move to update their comprehensive plans and regulations in the next few years. This will be a collaborative effort between counties, cities and towns.
Counties may base their plans on a higher or lower population target from the state Office of Financial Management, according to the release.
From there, they may use a new Department of Commerce tool, called Housing for All Planning, to determine how much housing would be needed in each income bracket.
Thurston County started the process of updating its comprehensive plan in late 2022. The project, which is called Thurston 2045, will enter a year-long phase of community outreach and internal reviews this month.
The Board of County Commissioners is scheduled to act on the update by June 2025, according to the county's website.
Here's a breakdown of Thurston County's housing needs by area median income levels.
