To summon my best Jerry Seinfeld voice ...
What's the deal with the AL West?
Seriously, one of baseball's most consistently competitive divisions is suddenly mired in mediocrity. Over the past five full seasons — excluding MLB's 60-game sprint in 2020 — an AL West team topped 86 wins 13 times (Houston five times, Seattle four, Oakland three and Texas once). A West representative claimed the American League pennant in four of those five years, including back-to-back World Series titles (Texas in 2023, Houston in 2022).
And yet, through nearly 60 games this spring, the 31-27 Mariners — and their minus-7 run differential — lead the West by three games. Texas (27-29) and Houston (25-32) are under .500, so far floundering at sea. The Oakland Athletics (23-35) and Los Angeles Angels (21-34) are predictably pitiful, and the Rangers (+1) own the only positive run differential in the division.
From a depth standpoint, this has been one of the most daunting divisions in all of baseball.
So again: What gives?
"It's different," Mariners manager Scott Servais said with a disbelieving laugh. "We're used to seeing multiple teams at the top of the division with winning records, playing consistent baseball. We haven't seen that as much this year, for different reasons."
Specifically, Texas' and Houston's team ERAs sit above the league average, with the Rangers 17th at 4.04 and the Astros 26th at 4.36. High-profile injuries haven't helped, as Texas starters Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer and Houston's Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy all remain sidelined.
As for differences: Texas' bullpen ERA is 29th in MLB (4.88), and the Astros' 5-12 record in one-run games is worst in the American League.
The Mariners, meanwhile, can't consistently hit — leading the league in strikeouts (582) while ranking 17th in walks (173), 18th in batting average on balls in play (.287), 23rd in slugging percentage (.365), 25th in OPS (.661), 27th in batting average (.222) and 28th in runs (211). They've been saddled with double-digit strikeouts in 38 of 58 games (65.5%).
That inefficiency was apparent Thursday, as Seattle struck out 12 times and managed four measly hits in a 4-0 loss to the Astros. And though they took three out of four from their division rival, the Mariners managed nine total runs in the set and struck out 46 times.
This, suddenly, is a division filled with flaws.
In two months, at the trade deadline, which ones will be best addressed?
"At the end of the day, to get in the playoffs you have to win your division or be one of the better teams in the league. That's what the goal here is," Servais said. "And once you get in the tournament, anything can happen.
"So our goal remains the same. We talked about it in spring training, 'Let's win the West.' To do that you can't really control what other teams are doing in the West. You control what we're doing. We're pitching outstanding, and we do know we need a little bit more offense."
That last line should double as a direct message to Mariners ownership. In the AL West's most winnable season in recent memory, Seattle touts the pitching staff to capture its first division crown since 2001. Though the bullpen has been inconsistent, Seattle relievers surrendered three hits and zero runs, with 13 strikeouts and a single walk, in 13 innings across four games against Houston. The Mariners' quality-start percentage (60%) also leads MLB, and their run support per game (3.8) ranks a lowly 27th.
Meaning, if the bats still sputter through the summer, they better be ready to make some moves.
If that means moving a prospect or two for an injection of instant offense, so be it. Because the AL West is begging to be won. And at this point, expecting a total turnaround from aging veterans such as Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco looks increasingly unrealistic.
Meanwhile, the Astros and Rangers — though simultaneously sleepwalking — are far from finished. Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, etc., have not forgotten how to hit.
History suggests that when their pitching health improves, the Astros and Rangers will make a run.
Will the Mariners be ready?
Is their front office willing to push chips into the middle to win a potentially weakened AL West?
"[The Astros] have a good team, good lineup. Always have," Mariners starter Logan Gilbert said Thursday, after surrendering eight hits and four earned runs in six innings. "Even their 'pen, their starters, they throw the ball well. They have good stuff.
"It's a really long season. I like where we're at right now. But they're not done. Obviously we haven't seen the last of them. So it's big that we can take the series here and hopefully move on and continue to do it the next time we go to Houston or they come up here."
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