Washington residents are overwhelmingly worried about American democracy, that much is clear from a new state poll.
A full 80% of respondents described our country's democracy as either holding firm but being threatened, or weakening and possibly headed for collapse. Nearly the same number, 78%, strongly or somewhat agreed that the future of democracy is at stake in the 2024 presidential election.
"I think it shows how polarized American democracy is in terms of both parties considering each other as a threat to their existence," said Mert Bayar, a postdoctoral scholar with the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, which sponsored the poll of 900 Washingtonians along with The Seattle Times and KING 5.
But who is more concerned about democracy's standing, Republicans or Democrats?
It depends which question you're asking. Among Republicans, 58% said democracy is weakening and may collapse, whereas 31% of Democrats did.
State of democracy in America
Question: How would you describe the state of democracy in America today?
Source: SurveyUSA (Mark Nowlin / The Seattle Times)
When it comes to whether democracy is at stake in the presidential race, the dynamic flipped, albeit with a slightly less pronounced gap: 88% of Democrats strongly or somewhat agreed that the matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump could spell doom for our form of government, while 69% of Republicans did.
The poll was conducted online by SurveyUSA between July 10 and 13, after the first presidential debate and before the attempted assassination of Trump. That act of political violence, the likes of which hasn't been since then-President Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981, has further heightened fears for U.S. democracy.
The poll's results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
To make sense of these findings, you have to look at who's in the White House for insight into how Republicans feel about the current state of democracy, said Jake Grumbach, a University of California, Berkeley, associate professor of public policy. A belief that things are going well tends to correspond with whether a person's party of choice holds power.
As many see it, Grumbach said: "My team winning really does mean democracy is doing better."
This attitude could relate to specific concerns about democratic functioning. Many Republicans, for instance, believe electoral fraud accounted for Biden's 2020 win, even though evidence does not substantiate this claim.
But professed alarm about democracy — a vague concept for many — can also relate to broader feelings about the state of the country, Grumbach said.
Dave Larson, a Republican Realtor who lives in the Tri-Cities and one of the people contacted in the poll, ticked off a host of problems when asked to explain his concern about democracy, including high gas prices, the lack of affordable housing, crime and Biden's perceived lack of vigor that he feels leaves the country open to attack.
"I think our country's in the weakest position I've ever lived in," said the 57-year-old.
Larson also said he doubted Biden really won the 2020 election. Biden's ascension to power nonetheless, compounded by a state government headed by a Democrat, have resulted in the "little guy" not being heard, Larson said.
Richard Mandock, a poll respondent who described himself as independent and leaning toward voting for Trump, homed in on the influx of migrants illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexican border. "Most of them are coming from nations either very, very socialist or communist," said Mandock, a 58-year-old retired high school teacher living on the Olympic Peninsula.
Migrants in recent years come from all over the world, including countries with hard-left regimes, such as Venezuela. Most say they are fleeing government repression, violence and economic hardships.
Mandock believes something more sinister is going on, linked in his mind to a baseless, hazy conspiracy. "They're going to want things the way they had it because they're being controlled. I don't know where the control comes from," he said.
He also painted various prosecutions against Trump, as well as against those who participated in the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, as politically-motivated "lawfare" indicating the downfall of the justice system.
For Democrats, Trump's reluctance to cede power in 2020 and the Jan. 6 assault are symbols of democracy under threat. That's persisted even with Biden in the White House, some Democrat poll respondents said.
Susan Anderson, a poll respondent and Mukilteo 78-year-old who coordinated medical research before retiring, pointed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
While the U.S. Supreme Court issued the 2022 decision that did away with Roe and the right to an abortion nationwide, Anderson blames Trump, who appointed three justices to the court during his tenure as president.
"He's taking away women's rights," said the Democrat. "It seems like more of a dictatorship when you're telling women what they can and can't do."
Respondent Cicely Smith, a Democrat, also sees the Supreme Court in Trump's pocket and cited the justices' ruling this month that former presidents have absolute immunity from prosecution for official acts.
"We don't have anybody on our side to help us," said the 49-year-old from Federal Way.
"He already said he wants to be a dictator," Smith noted, referring to comments Trump made late last year that he would be a dictator for just one day if he is elected in November so that he could close the border. Trump was responding to questions about whether he has authoritarian leanings, and his aides said he was trying to provoke the left and the media.
Democrats' focus on Trump is key to their anxiety about democracy, said Grumbach and Bayar, the scholars from UC Berkeley and the University of Washington respectively. In contrast, they said, Republicans' sense of unease tends to take in more than Biden, extending to liberalism and cultural changes at odds with their way of life.
That's likely why more Democrats than Republicans see the upcoming presidential election as a referendum on democracy, the scholars said. And it may offer insight into how Democrats feel about the current situation.
While comparatively few Democrats told pollsters democracy is weakening and may collapse, significantly more, 45%, said democracy is "holding firm but being threatened."
That mimics the message of Democratic elites and is arguably the most central theme of Biden's campaign. The "holding firm" part is important, Bayer said. Because Biden is in the White House, party leaders want to convey positivity. At the same time, they want to mobilize voters in November by warning about Trump.
Washington State Democratic Party Chair Shasti Conrad expressed this message bluntly in a recent interview. "It's democracy versus authoritarianism and fascism," she said.
There's a paradoxical danger to today's hyperpolarization in the U.S., Bayer said. If you look to other countries that have had backslides in democracy, like Turkey and Venezuela, what came first was apocalyptic rhetoric from warring parties about their opponents, fed by conspiracy theories and misinformation.
Bayer explained it this way: "Whenever you think that democracy is going to collapse, you fall more for authoritarians, because those are the ones who can save you."
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