The Chehalis City Council once again discussed the city’s 2045 population prediction during its Monday, July 22, meeting as city staff continue a comprehensive plan update along with Lewis County officials.
City staff asked the council to consider allowing the use of a population estimate close to a new one produced by the Washington state Office of Financial Management (OFM).
After a bit of discussion about which actual estimate to use, Chehalis City Mayor Tony Ketchum told Interim Community Development Director Malissa Paulsen to use “whatever you're comfortable with.”
Paulsen said she would return to the council after speaking with Lewis County Community Development Director Mindy Brooks. No official motion or action was taken by the council on the issue.
Monday’s discussion came after a high OFM prediction was utilized last year by city staff in partnership with Lewis County officials working on the county’s comprehensive plan periodic update.
Last year’s prediction forecast Chehalis having as many as 23,000 residents by 2045.
“This is an overzealous, high-end number,” former Chehalis Building and Planning Manager Tammy Baraconi said during an April 2023 council meeting.
The city’s population was 7,645 as of the most recent Census.
New numbers are showing Chehalis is still projected to grow, but not to the extent estimated last year, with the state now forecasting Chehalis could have 13,791 residents by 2045.
Brooks was at Monday’s meeting along with Paulsen and explained the new land capacity analysis (LCA) study came from the OFM, which produces a 20-year “range population estimate” every five years.
She stated earlier this year the county also reached out to Chehalis city staff to discuss population projections after receiving the new LCA.
“We are required by state law to allocate that to our jurisdictions in the county,” Brooks said.
Following the 23,000 resident estimate last year, the city hired an outside consultant to do its own population forecast within the existing city limits and UGA for its own comprehensive plan update.
It produced an estimate of about half of what was adopted in 2023. Brooks added the city’s study prompted county officials to reach out to the OFM asking for a more in depth look at Chehalis’ population forecast.
The new LCA looked at both underdeveloped and undeveloped parcels, zoning regulations, critical areas and more to determine the population Chehalis may have by 2045. Using these parameters, Brooks said the OFM was able to get a better idea of the actual housing and population growth limits within the existing city limits and UGA.
Currently, Chehalis has an estimated population of 7,480 this year within city limits, according to the OFM’s new study, with an additional 2,480 living in the city’s UGA, according to a 2022 estimate.
Using the new LCA along with a county population estimate reconciliation from 2002 to 2022, Chehalis could have anywhere between 11,289 and 13,791 residents by 2045.
“That is still aggressive growth from where you are now,” Brooks said.
Though required by state law, Brooks was at Monday’s meeting to present the new population estimate numbers to the council and explain why it would be beneficial for the city to use them.
“It’s a planning tool,” Brooks said. “You have to demonstrate in your comprehensive plan periodic update that you have land that is zoned and it has enough capacity for that population, and when you say can accommodate, that’s housing, jobs — so your land has to be zoned to house all those people and to provide jobs for them.”
The city must also demonstrate it can serve all of these residents with water, sewer and access to other utilities in other plans it must prepare and submit to the state for approval.
“So there are some serious planning implications. If you overshoot, your planning infrastructure for a population that isn’t coming, which tends to increase everybody’s fees and rates,” Brooks said.
Brooks recommended the council adopt a forecast estimate of 13,500, just under the OFM’s prediction of 13,791.
She added as the OFM produces these forecasts every five years, and Chehalis City Manager Stacy Denham told the council course corrections can be made to the city’s comprehensive plan then.
To view the City of Chehalis’ current city limits and UGA, use the city’s official zoning map at https://www.ci.chehalis.wa.us/media/26646.
