Among the items up for discussion at Chehalis City Council’s meeting Monday night was a presentation by Chehalis Building and Planning Manager Tammy Baraconi concerning the city’s housing plans and population projections for the next 20 years.
Though the projections don’t take into account every housing developer working with the city right now and the number will be revisited in five years, Baraconi said the city could expect as many as 22,000 new residents by 2042.
According to Baraconi, Chehalis’ population has already grown by 14.66% from 2002 to 2022. That number includes those living within city limits as well as the urban growth area (UGA).
Populations living within city limits as well as the UGA were taken into account by the state Office of Financial Management (OFM) during its most recent population projection. The state estimate went out to 2045, while the city only looked at the next 20 years.
A new estimate was needed as based off of the OFM projection, the city won’t be getting enough allocated funds from the state to help fully facilitate infrastructure development at population growth levels where they currently are, according to the city.
“OFM originally calculated that we would grow by an additional 1,444 people in our city limits and our urban growth area (by 2045),” Baraconi said. “In consulting with Councilor (Bob) Spahr and Miss (City Manager Jill) Anderson, it was decided 1,444 was not a reasonable number. We could expect to grow a little more.”
Baraconi began an analysis involving four different development areas already in Chehalis and its UGA, looking at overall acreage and maximum density.
She multiplied the acreage number by 24, the maximum number of housing units allowed per acre by Lewis County, and then multiplied that number by 2.5, which is Lewis County’s average household size.
In the end, Baraconi estimated the new developments could bring in as many as 62,000 new residents if every acre was developed to maximum capacity.
She stressed that the new estimate is extremely generous and did not take into account that most developers probably won’t actually build at maximum housing capacity.
“This is an overzealous, high-end number,” Baraconi added.
She said developers were planning on building associated infrastructure, including parks, road expansions and water reservoirs as well as other commercial areas to help serve new residents, all of which would lessen the amount of livable housing units.
Baraconi said developers she talked to didn’t actually plan on building maximum density housing.
Due to this, she then took the high-end estimate of 62,000 and cut it in half, then assumed that number, 31,000, would be the city’s total population including residents already living there — around 9,000 people including those living in the UGA.
That left Baraconi with the estimate of around 22,000 new possible residents moving into Chehalis and its UGA by 2042.
She added with other developers, aside from the four she talked to, there could be as many as another 200 additional housing units coming.
Despite this new number, county officials did not raise their original projection and capped the countywide population to approximately 23,000 new residents by 2045.
“County Commissioners said that 105,000 (people living in Lewis County by 2045) is as high as they’re willing to go and we have to make it work,” added Baraconi.
Due to this, the city will most likely have to resort to getting loans to help pay for infrastructure development that will be needed as Chehalis continues to grow, according to Baraconi.
To qualify for the loans, the city needs to show it can pay the money back, which Baraconi said required an “accurate or close to accurate” population projection adopted by the city itself.
She added the city will reassess population projection numbers again in five years.
“I think the county is being short-sighted. There’s still a (population) boom in Napavine, Winlock is expected to have another big boom and Toledo is now supposedly getting on the (boom) wagon and they're supposed to be having one,” Mayor Tony Ketchum said. “Just those three cities by themselves, for the county, could wipe out this arbitrary (population projection) number.”
Centralia also has city officials currently working on new population projections. Look for a story detailing those projections and how they will affect Centralia’s housing plan in an upcoming edition of The Chronicle.
It should be noted that the countywide population projection was dictated to Lewis County officials and capped at 104,951 by state officials, according to Centralia Community Development Director Emil Pierson, who spoke briefly on the topic during Centralia’s Tuesday night city council meeting.
Additionally, the cities of Mossyrock, Napavine, Pe Ell, Toledo, Vader and Winlock have been in contact with Lewis County officials over discrepancies involving population projections.
