Commentary: Julio Rodriguez is on an all-time heater and Mariners are on an impressive roll

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I'm sitting here live from a packed Lumen Field wondering how these guys could possibly be the column right now.

That's hardly a shot at the most successful NFC franchise of the past 10 years; just a nod to the hottest team in Major League Baseball right now.

Perhaps the Seahawks, who hosted the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 of the preseason Saturday, will hoist a trophy of some sort come early 2024 and set new stadium decibel-level records along the way. But what the Mariners — particularly their center fielder — are doing right now supersedes any sport involving a Super Bowl.

Saturday, the M's won for the fifth time in a row, 13th time in 16 games, and 21st time out of 28. Reigning American League Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez, meanwhile, has collected 17 hits over his past four games to break the four-game record of Milt Stock — which also spawned a record for the number of times Milt Stock's name has been mentioned in a day.

What the Mariners are doing is impressive. What J-Rod is doing is impossible. His 4-for-6, one-stolen-base effort versus Houston on Saturday was his worst performance over the past four days — during which he has gone 17 for 22 with two home runs, eight RBI and five stolen bases.

You might recall a column in March by a certain Times sports writer (pasty, ginger dude) that wondered if Rodriguez might endure a sophomore slump this season. This is the same writer (drinks about 10 Coke Zeros a day, mentions his mother in his bio) that suggested the M's were essentially surrendering 2023 with their trade-deadline moves. If you want, I can get him to pen a piece on how Seattle will never win a World Series, least of all this year.

But the main point is that with the Mariners (68-55) currently leading the Blue Jays by a half-game for the third and final AL wild-card spot, dreaming about mid-to-late October baseball (or beyond?) is fair game. So is a division title, seeing how Seattle is now just four back of the Texas Rangers.

What's most encouraging is that the forces that were supposed to be driving the Mariners at the beginning of the season are the ones doing it now — and will likely be the responsible forces if the Mariners keep surging up the standings.



The first is the pitching. Despite some rough spots in Kansas City early last  week, Seattle still has the second-best ERA in MLB (3.69), a mere two hundredths higher than Toronto. The Mariners also have the second-best bullpen ERA (3.39), a number that has improved since the team dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks at the end of July.

There was a seven-game streak that began August 6 in which the M's never allowed more than three runs through nine innings. They beat the Astros — who rank third in the AL in runs — 2-0 Friday and 10-3 Saturday. And besides All-Star Luis Castillo, who is signed through 2028, this dominance has come via a homegrown starting staff that could very well be with the team for the foreseeable future.

Next, there is Rodriguez. Obviously there is no way the 22-year-old can continue this pace, but his numbers have been on the upswing for the past four weeks. On July 21, he looked like the Sophomore Slump epitomized, given his .245 batting average and .707 OPS (he hit .284 last season with an OPS of .854). Now he is batting .278 with an .800 OPS — and his 33 stolen bases are eight more than his total last season.

In short: If he keeps his second-half pace, Rodriguez will not only match his production from last year, but surpass it.

It's not just Julio, though. The Mariners spent the first half of the season in the bottom quadrant of MLB in OPS and the bottom half in runs. Now they are 17th in OPS and 13th in runs. That's more than sufficient for this pitching staff if those arms stay healthy.

Fangraphs.com presently gives the Mariners a 52.6% chance of making the playoffs, which is more than twice as high as it was a month ago. The M's are rolling. Like no team in MLB right now. And nine of their next 10 games come against teams with records waaaay below .500.

There were 68,458 tickets sold for the Seahawks preseason game Saturday. Good for them. Lots of history, talent and potential there.

But it isn't their town right now. Not even a little bit.