The Mariners have shown they can win without Jarred Kelenic. But anyone who thinks they don't need him now, in the crucial final three weeks of the stretch drive, is way off base.
Kelenic won't be the savior of the Mariners, but he offers them a much-needed burst of energy and talent at a point when the strain of a long season is starting to reveal itself. Look for Kelenic to rejoin the Mariners on Monday, when they open a crucial homestand (aren't they all?) against the Angels — and from my viewpoint, it is nothing but a positive.
Oh, I know there has been a school of thought percolating out there that the Mariners are better off without Kelenic, who has been out of action for seven weeks since fracturing his foot in a pique of anger on July 19. The basis for that outlook is the fact that the Mariners' season-saving surge coincided almost precisely with the day that Kelenic, upset at losing a protracted nine-pitch, ninth-inning plate battle with Twins fireballer Jhoan Duran, took out his frustration at a called Strike 3 on a Gatorade cooler in the dugout.
The Mariners lost that game 6-3 to fall to 47-48, good for fourth place in the AL West and seventh in the wild-card race. They were 5 1/2 games out of the final wild-card spot and 10 games behind the Texas Rangers, who seemed firmly ensconced at the top of the division (spoiler alert: They weren't).
Starting the next day, with Cade Marlowe called up to assume Kelenic's spot in left field, the Mariners went off on a sizzling 29-9 run to take control of a playoff spot. They even moved into sole possession of first place Aug. 27, though Houston now resides there with the Rangers in free fall.
But as many wise analysts have said over the years, correlation is not causation. In other words, it would be a gross oversimplification to hypothesize that the Mariners' surge happened because Kelenic left the lineup, as if he was some sort of dark force that had been holding them back, rather than one of their top performers up to that point.
I would say they took off because Julio Rodriguez decided to go into Superman mode, because the depth of their pitching became a separator as the season progressed, and because a bunch of previously struggling hitters began to show much more consistency. To attribute that to Kelenic's departure is a stretch that would require the most limber of intellectual gymnastics.
Which brings us to the present moment, as the Mariners struggle through a difficult 10-game road trip that has seen them lose four of seven games. With 22 games left in the regular season — including three with the Dodgers, three with the Astros and seven with the Rangers — the Mariners are going to need every edge and boost they can get.
Which brings us to Kelenic, who is on a rehab assignment with Tacoma, where through Wednesday he was 9 for 21 in six games with three doubles, a home run and a slash line of .429/.520/.714.
Though Marlowe did an admirable job in Kelenic's absence, and etched his way permanently into Mariners lore with his ninth-inning grand slam in Anaheim, he appears to have hit a wall. Since Aug. 18, Marlowe is hitting .133 (4 for 30) with a 50% strikeout rate. And though Dominic Canzone has certainly provided an offensive lift at times — a .446 slugging percentage and 13 extra-base hits in 28 games with the Mariners since coming over from Arizona at the trade deadline — he had just a .274 on-base percentage (five walks in 101 at-bats) entering Thursday.
Kelenic provides the prospect of an impact bat while also being an outstanding outfielder and one of the team's best base runners. It is telling that Kelenic has been playing exclusively in right field for Tacoma, a signal that the Mariners may plan to use him as a defensive upgrade over Teo Hernandez in right.
Indeed, the options that Kelenic's return will give manager Scott Servais are enticing. He can slide Hernandez into the designated hitter spot with more frequency, with Kelenic and Canzone manning the corners. Mike Ford, who has proved a formidable power bat, can still spot start at DH and even get more time at first base in light of Ty France's lackluster season. One would presume that Marlowe is the top candidate to head to Tacoma to clear a roster spot for Kelenic, with Sam Haggerty offering more defensive versatility as well as being a switch-hitter.
One thing we have learned in these tense recent games is that in the crucible of a pennant race, every 90 feet matters, on both offense and defense. And with Kelenic, they should gain on both sides of that equation.
What of Kelenic's emotional outburst that led to his seven-week hiatus? Regrettable, obviously, but keep in mind that Kelenic was a few days shy of his 24th birthday when this happened. He would be the first to tell you that it was a major mistake, one that he vows to learn from. Kelenic told Daniel Kramer of MLB.com last week:
"I definitely think it's going to be a huge steppingstone for me in my career, because the decision that I made not only affected myself, but it affected the team and the city because I wasn't able to play. Any time that happens, it sucks. You never want to do that again. I never want to feel the way that I did again. So the only way to do that is just not do it again."
That sounds to me like someone who has learned his lesson, and will be motivated to atone for his actions. Kelenic asserted himself as a vastly improved player right from the start of the season, hitting seven homers in March/April with a .308/.366/.615 slash line (.982 OPS). Even though he didn't maintain that consistency, Kelenic showed enough flashes of power before his injury to make his re-insertion into the lineup a no-brainer.
In fact, if Kelenic can come close to replicating his early-season impact in the restart of his season, the Mariners will have acquired a major boost for the stretch drive without benefit of a trade.
