You’ve felt the heat and now you’re seeing — or perhaps even smelling — the smoke. Washington’s wildfire season is well underway and scientists are saying the state has reached a dangerous period a month earlier than normal.
This is the convergence of a poor winter snowpack, a warm spring chipping away at the state’s water supply and a hot, dry summer.
This has compounded threats from the long-term accumulation of grasses, shrubs and trees that fuel wildfires across the region and generations of wildfire suppression.
Only July 14, the National Interagency Fire Center published a report noting that conditions on the ground more closely resemble those most commonly seen in mid-August.
Fuels are so dry now that the risk of much larger wildfires, massive smoke plumes and additional evacuations has ticked sharply upward. Even Western Washington should be on alert, scientists say. There are a few things people can do to help out, but by and large the wildfire risk now covering much of the state is here to stay until the fall rains return.
Conditions across Washington are concerning, said Jim Agee, a professor emeritus in the University of Washington’s School of Environmental and Forest Sciences.
“Very, very concerning,” he said.
And as the planet continues to warm, they’re going to grow worse, he said.
Drought and fuels
More than 85% of Washington’s land is considered abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s drought map. Nearly two-thirds suffers from drought conditions with extreme drought already creeping into Okanogan County.
State officials declared an unprecedented fourth drought emergency in a row in April, just as winter snowpack has historically peaked, and the weather only turned hotter and drier from there.
Not only does the drought spell trouble for Washington’s water supply, particularly in the Yakima River basin, but it also means grasses, shrubs and trees across the state began to dry out — or cure — earlier than normal.
The logic is simple enough. Should a wildfire break out, a dead log that’s fully dried out will burn more readily and release more energy than one that still retains some moisture.
The curing process happens every year but its timing and severity matter greatly because the drier Washington’s fuels become, the greater the potential for wildfires to spark and spread.
That’s significant because mid-August is typically when Washington’s fuels become dry enough to seriously burn, said Susan Prichard, a scientist specializing in wildfire ecology for UW. Think of it as the time when, historically, the state’s wildfire season began.
Already some of those fuels have gone up in smoke, the Fire Center's July report noted. At least a dozen wildfires are currently burning across Washington, covering a combined total of more than 250 square miles.
One of those, the Kaiser Canyon fire in Okanogan County, accounts for more than 185 square miles, more than twice the land footprint of Seattle. So far, the Kaiser Canyon fire has forced the evacuation of more than 1,000 people and destroyed at least 24 structures.
Wildfire conditions degraded so badly in July that waterways, which normally act as natural breaks for these disasters, can no longer serve as a reliable barrier to stop their spread, the Fire Center reported.
The risk
Each fire season is, in some ways, about probability. How long are these fuels dry enough to catch fire and how often does that coincide with high winds, dry lightning strikes and any other potential ignition sources.
The longer that window remains open, the more likely a wildfire is to spark, spread and wreak havoc.
That’s one of the reasons this month’s fuel report is so significant, Prichard said. Washington’s wildfire window is opening earlier, not to mention the depths of that longer season is now plagued by hotter and drier weather as droughts persist.
The change also leaves more of Western Washington exposed to the fire risk, Prichard said. In years past, many of the mountain slopes west of the Cascades might have retained a natural defense of wildfire. Perhaps they’re angled away from the sun and retain moisture longer through the year.
This sort of patchwork of wet and dry landscapes can keep wildfires at bay or, if they do spark, prevent them from spreading prolifically. But when the climate starts off so hot and dry, so early in the season, that line of natural defense disappears.
“On years like this, all the slopes start becoming available,” Prichard said. That matters hugely for large wildfire growth.”
Already one small wildfire has sparked on the Olympic Peninsula this year. Another last year near Lake Cushman, the Bear Gulch fire, marked the largest fire that had burned on the peninsula since 1951, scorching more than 31 square miles.
Over past millennia, massive wildfires have indeed swept over Western Washington. But thanks to the region’s wetter and cooler climate, they’re not nearly as common as those east of the Cascades.
But as the planet continues to warm and the region dries out further, the gaps between major fires in the state’s most verdant and heavily populated regions are likely to shrink, Prichard and Agee agree.
So what?
At first blush, there might seem to be little a person can do in the face of this ever-warming climate. But all is not lost.
Around 85% of all of Washington’s wildfires are lit by humans. So a single person can make a big difference. Avoid parking in tall, dry grasses, Prichard said. Hot tail pipes, especially after long drives, can spark a wildfire. As can chains dragging on pavement.
Pay attention to weather forecasts and local restrictions. Skip the campfires until the rainy season returns. Take care where you extinguish your cigarettes.
State officials can take action too, Agee said. Thinning forests and prescribed burns can sharply reduce wildfire risk in particularly vulnerable areas. But funding cuts in the statehouse have chipped away at Washington’s ability to proactively manage these disasters. Not to mention, ongoing droughts have shrunk the available window for safe prescribed burns, he said.
© 2026 The Seattle Times. Visit www.seattletimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
