Early forecasting from the National Weather Service (NWS) suggests a high chance of average rainfall and warmer than average temperatures this winter.
That same conclusion could also suggest an early preview of a particularly dry 2027 summer.
The Lewis County Department of Emergency Management held its annual flood meeting Wednesday afternoon at the Lewis County Courthouse.
Even with multiple speakers and first responders from across the county in attendance, the main event was, as usual, the winter weather outlook presented by National Weather Service staff.
That included how a possibly historic El Niño could contribute this winter.
“This is going to be potentially a very historic El Niño,” NWS Meteorologist Madelyn Kristell told the audience. “But it's important to note that no two of them are the same. They can act very differently each time they occur.”
According to Kristell, early predictions show higher chances of a relatively warm winter and equal chances either direction on the precipitation front. Weather signals do not currently show signs of above or below average precipitation in Southwest Washington.
Those predictions are strongest through January, but also extend into the spring through April and May. Kristell described the early outlook on flooding as “muddy” with the nearby Cascades showing a higher chance of low precipitation, but warm temperatures increasing the chances that more precipitation falls as rain than snow.
On the positive side, the National Weather Service believes any major flood events would be easily predictable, with four to eight days of advance notice.
Kristell added that the patterns meteorologists are seeing now are consistent with what they would expect in an El Niño year, which generally contributes to higher precipitation in the southern parts of the country and warmer than average winters in the northern states.
“For Western Washington, you'll notice that we don't have that shading on the precipitation side, showing you know definitively or leaning more definitively towards below average precipitation,” Kristell said. “So there's still hope that we can get a little bit of you know close to normal precipitation.”
During her presentation, Kristell informed the crowd that the National Weather Service had confirmed a 100% chance that the country will experience an El Niño weather pattern this year with a roughly 85% chance that it could be a historic event when compared with all previous El Niños on record since the late 1950s.
She was also quick to point out that an El Niño is not a guarantee of the weather residents will experience this winter. Using records of previous El Niño events, she showed that Washington has seen both warmer and cooler than average winters during an El Niño as well as both wetter and drier than average.
El Niños also do not predict the strength of individual weather events, but rather help predict averages over a season. In other words, Southwest Washington could still experience notable cold snaps, snowstorms or other extreme weather events.
Kristell warned that regardless of the precipitation levels, warmer than average weather suggests the region could struggle to build a significant snowpack this winter and experience warmer than average weather heading into summer.
“We often see a bulk of our precipitation falling as rain, which does not mean good things for building that snowpack,” Kristell said. “We often struggle to do that because the systems that come in and the background temperatures are warmer, which I'm already thinking about next year's fire season.”
The annual flood meeting also featured presentations from a number of other agencies, including both the Lewis County Sheriff’s Office and Public Works Department, which both stressed the importance of heeding road closures during flood events among other concerns.
“When there's a road closed sign, it's put there for a reason,” Special Services Chief Gabe Frase said. “You may think that there's only a foot of water going across the road, but that's all it takes. And, frankly, you have no idea what's under that water.”
Officials from both the Office of Chehalis Basin and the Army Corps of Engineers highlighted their agencies’ ability to help support projects and repairs before and after emergencies. The Army Corps of Engineers is also able to provide more immediate assistance in extreme circumstances.
Finally, longtime staff lead for the Chehalis Basin Flood Authority Scott Boettcher presented an update on the authority’s regional flood warning system, which is now able to send flood alerts over text and in Spanish.
To sign up for the flood warning system, which monitors water flows in waterways across the region at all times, visit https://chehalis.onerain.com/.
