OLYMPIA — The battle over Washington's landmark climate law is growing more expensive by the day, and the fight over an initiative that would repeal it is one of the priciest statewide races this year.
In 2023, Redmond hedge fund manager Brian Heywood devoted more than $6 million to an effort to get a slate of initiatives — including one repealing the climate law — before voters. This year, his group, Let's Go Washington, has spent nearly $5 million more to persuade voters to pass the initiatives, rollbacks of major policies passed by the Legislature's Democratic majority.
On the other side, more than $14 million, driven by donations from Seattle tech scions, is pouring into the campaign to keep the Climate Commitment Act intact.
Washingtonians have started to see what all that money can buy as TV ads hit the airwaves in recent weeks.
The supporters of the initiative continue to emphasize how the climate law increased the cost of gas, and opponents are arguing the law has provided valuable funding that supports transportation and limits pollution.
Recent polling suggests voters may be less open to repealing the program as the election draws nearer, but about a quarter of voters remain undecided.
Washington's Climate Commitment Act passed in 2021 and went into effect in 2023. The legislation placed a cap on greenhouse gas emissions and created auctions where polluters can buy allowances to emit. The number of allowances will decline over time to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets. The law requires the money to be spent on projects boosting clean transportation and addressing environmental justice and health inequity issues.
Let's Go Washington, which supports all of the initiatives, focused its first TV ad, released in mid-September, on gas prices. It features one of the carbon market's most vocal boosters: Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, who in 2022 said the legislation would have "minimal impact, if any" on gas prices.
"Pennies, we're talking about pennies," he says in the ad.
"It turns out it was nearly 50 pennies per gallon, which adds up to a lot," the narrator says as pennies and bills stack up, framing an image of a price ticker on a gas pump. The spot ends with the campaign motto: "Vote yes, pay less."
Heywood says the ad showcases the impact of the carbon market on gas prices, but also the distrust he says people feel of policymakers in the Capitol.
"People have heard all these promises from Olympia," Heywood said, " ... and then the results are not anywhere near what they promised."
Last year, experts told The Seattle Times oil companies were passing along the cost of compliance with the new law to consumers, to the tune of about 50 cents per gallon.
A year ago, the average price of a gallon of regular gas was $5.05, according to AAA. Inslee's administration has shifted blame for gas prices to the oil companies. The governor and Democratic lawmakers this year tried but failed to pass legislation to force oil companies to disclose more financial information.
That said, while Washington has higher gas prices compared to the national average, the price per gallon of regular gas in the state is $4.13 as of Thursday, slightly down from $4.18 in late February 2023, when the first auctions for the carbon market were held.
Initiative opponents, meanwhile, have focused their recent ads on the risks of pollution and on the potential cuts to transportation projects. Altogether, No on 2117 has made four ad buys, said Mark Prentice, a spokesperson for the campaign.
An ad released by the No on 2117 campaign in the Seattle area Thursday says that getting places in Washington can take a while, but Initiative 2117 would make the problem worse by reducing funding for transportation — less money for fixing roads and bridges and for public transit.
"If Initiative 2117 passes, you might even get jealous of him," the narrator says as a snail crawls across the screen.
An ad released Tuesday in Southwest, Central and Eastern Washington media markets feature a doctor specializing in lungs and respiratory diseases.
"In the ICU, I see patients suffering from asthma and lung disease," says Dr. Vin Gupta, a pulmonologist and critical care physician, in a 15-second spot. "So the fact that Initiative 2117 would mean more toxic air pollution in Washington is unacceptable for my patients and their health."
The ad concludes with Gupta saying the initiative is "a bad deal for Washington."
A Cascade PBS poll conducted in early September by Stuart Elway indicates that voters could be amenable to that message: 46% of 403 registered voters said they would probably or definitely vote against repeal, while 30% said they would probably or definitely vote for it. That leaves about 24% of voters who were undecided.
No on 2117 is trying to keep the spotlight on the programs that could get cut if the initiative passes. The money raised from carbon auctions is split between the state's operating, transportation and construction budgets.
"We have seen, and we know that Washingtonians value clean air and clean water, and so we are going to be communicating and talking to Washingtonians across the state about the threats of Initiative 2117 to our health," Prentice said. For instance, passing the initiative would cut funding for ventilation programs in schools, he said.
Asked how the No on 2117 campaign would push back on Let's Go Washington's focus on gas prices, Prentice said the initiative is "deceptive."
"Nothing in 2117 guarantees lower prices," he said. "The only guarantee of Initiative 2117 is cuts to transportation, cuts to clean air programs, cuts to programs that protect our waterways."
No on 2117 has garnered big donations from Washington tech leaders including former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and his wife, Connie, at $2.5 million and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and a co-founder of the data visualization software company Tableau, Chris Stolte, who each gave $1 million. Its biggest donors also include The Nature Conservancy and the Puyallup Tribe of Indians. Foundations supported by Ballmer and Gates also contribute to Seattle Times reporting initiatives.
Heywood acknowledges the campaign against I-2117 has a financial advantage, but believes the core messages of the "Yes" campaign, including that the policy costs Washingtonians too much, will win the day.
He says the challenge will be getting that message to voters. At the campaign's regular events where they subsidize gas so customers are only paying the national average per gallon, he says, about half of people are aware of the initiatives.
Heywood said he is fundraising to pay for more TV and digital ads and to reach more voters at their front doors.
So far, Let's Go Washington's biggest donors in 2024 include Main Street Matters to Washington, the political action committee for the Building Industry Association of Washington, which has given $700,000, according to campaign finance records. BIAW Member Services Corporation, the association's for-profit arm, has given $500,000. The association is a key supporter of Initiative 2066, which Let's Go Washington has thrown its weight behind. That measure would roll back parts of a law meant to allow the state's largest utility to transition away from natural gas.
Let's Go Washington has also received support from Kemper Holdings and Lawrence Hughes.
Even though big money is flowing into the contest over the carbon market this year, spending so far pales in comparison to that on a failed 2018 ballot measure that would have imposed a carbon tax.
That year, backers of the tax spent about $16 million — and that was just about half of what opponents, fueled by the oil industry, spent, committing $31 million.
Two years earlier, Washington voters rejected another carbon tax, but the spending on that campaign was much lighter at roughly $4 million altogether.
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