If history repeats itself, this year's race for Washington's next governor will be close.
Ballots dropped last week for the Aug. 6 state primary elections. This year marks the first incumbent-free contest for governor since Jay Inslee was elected in 2012, barely beating out his Republican opponent Rob McKenna with 3% of the vote. And in 2004, Chris Gregoire beat her Republican opponent Dino Rossi in the closest gubernatorial race in U.S. history, winning by a mere 133 votes.
A new poll published in the Seattle Times showed Bob Ferguson, the Democratic frontrunner in the race for governor, has a 9% lead over his main rival in the race, Republican Dave Reichert. But Ferguson doesn't have the governor's mansion in the bag — 14% of voters indicated they are undecided.
The poll
If data from that poll holds true, Ferguson and Reichert likely will face off on the general election ballot in November. Along with Ferguson and Reichert, two others — Republican Semi Bird and Democrat Mark Mullet — have put their names on the map, spending a combined total of more than $1.5 million on their campaigns.
It's been nearly 40 years since Washington last elected a Republican governor. Although the state is made up of politically and geographically diverse regions, the highly populated western side of the state tends to outnumber conservative voters and paint usually statewide elections blue, albeit sometimes in razor-thin margins.
Unlike Washington, most states don't hold their gubernatorial elections in the same year as presidential elections. Only 11 states have governor races this year. Political action committees are pouring money into the Evergreen State's race as a result. All told, candidates vying to be the state's next governor have spent nearly $14 million on their campaigns.
The Spokesman-Review interviewed the four top contenders in the race for Washington's next governor: Democrats Ferguson and Mullet, along with Republicans Reichert and Bird. Here's what they said:
Dave Reichert
Republican front-runner Reichert, of Seattle, is a former U.S. Representative and the former sheriff of King County. He's running a campaign centered around law and order and says his experience in law enforcement is just what the state needs in its next governor.
"There's no accountability," Reichert said, denouncing pro-Gaza protesters who blocked off a major freeway for hours in Seattle last year and college campus anti-war protests earlier this year. "There's no consequences any more for bad behavior."
The former sheriff said he'd use the governor's office to push for more police officers in the state and blamed Inslee for the state's substance -abuse crisis and housing shortage.
"We can see the failed policies have resulted in high crime, a lower number of police officers, homelessness," Reichert said.
When asked what sets him apart from his opponents in the race, Reichert went right into criticizing current state attorney general Ferguson.
In the last 12 years, Ferguson has "supported defunding the police," Reichert said. "He has supported legalizing drugs on the streets of cities across the state, which has led to severe addiction problems, substance abuse across the state."
Reichert said he would push to elect more leaders in the state who support cops.
"Our criminal justice system is upside-down," he said. "We blame victims today and we excuse criminals."
Reichert, 73, said he's concerned about climate change but does not support Inslee's Climate Commitment Act, the state's landmark climate policy, saying the state needs to implement a "transition period" before moving away from gas-powered cars and fossil fuels.
The "banning of natural gas has a huge financial impact on people across the state, and mostly on elderly and low-income people," he said.
The gubernatorial hopeful said the state needs a clean energy plan that doesn't "drive business out of the state."
Bob Ferguson
Democratic front-runner Bob Ferguson has worked as the state's elected attorney general since 2012. He previously served on the King County Council and worked as a lawyer. He said he's running for governor because the state needs change, but not the kind that his main opponent, Dave Reichert, would bring.
"In my time as attorney general, I've been focused on centering the people in our work," Ferguson said. "And I intend on bringing that same focus to leading the state as governor."
Ferguson, 59, said he fully supports Inslee's Climate Commitment Act and denounced Reichert's criticism of it.
"One thing I think Dave Reichert needs to explain to the people of the state of Washington is how he's going to fill the budget hole if that is repealed," Ferguson said. "He's provided no answer to how he's gonna resolve that."
When asked what sets him apart from his opponents in the race, Ferguson responded that the only opponent "that's relevant right now" is Dave Reichert.
"We could not be more different," Ferguson said about Reichert. "He's not just anti-choice, he voted three times in Congress for a nationwide abortion ban that criminalizes doctors."
The longtime attorney general has spent much of his time on the campaign trail warning voters about Reichert's conservative voting record, including his history of voting in alignment with policies of former President Donald Trump.
Ferguson said he wants voters on the eastern side of the state to know that he's the only candidate in the race that has lived and worked in Spokane. He criticized Reichert's campaign and said he represents large corporations, not working-class residents in the state.
Ferguson has centered his campaign around work he's done as attorney general, including filing more than 50 lawsuits against Trump's administration, including its attempts to crack down on immigrants. He's also pointed to his track record of lawsuits filed against large pharmaceutical companies for their role in fueling the nationwide opioid epidemic.
Semi Bird
The other top Republican in the race is Misipati "Semi" Bird, a decorated military veteran who lives in Richland. Bird is a relative political newcomer, having only held one other elected office — on the Richland School Board. His charismatic way of speaking and anti-establishment values have garnered him support from certain pockets of Republicans in the state and some independents. Back in April, the Richland man clinched the endorsement of the state GOP after a chaotic conference in Spokane.
Bird, 63, retired from his job running a leadership training firm to focus on his campaign. He said he's been a Republican his whole life, but he thinks the party no longer represents everyday people. He said the Republican Party to him is the party of civil rights, the party of abolition. His years of military service, he said, equip him with the skills needed to "move the needle" and get Washington back on track.
"It's almost as though elected officials are placed out there for us to choose from, and we are forced to accept them," Bird said. "Over the last 10 years, with the mandates and the economy and the breakdown of our education system, it's just gotten worse and worse."
If elected, Bird said the first thing he'd do is hire a third party to audit the state's programs and offices and figure out what's going on.
"Jay Inslee has doubled the budget over the last 10 years, and the return on investment has been terrible for citizens," Bird said. " Their taxes continue to go up, but roads are worse, schools are worse, the economy is worse."
When asked what sets him apart from his opponents in the race, Bird said he has steered clear of name-calling and political drama during his campaign.
"I have been writing solutions with action for the past year and a half," Bird said. "I had an economic development plan out. I had a law and order report before Bob Ferguson came out with one, before Dave Reichert came out with one."
Like Reichert, Bird criticized the Climate Commitment Act, saying the state needs to address climate change in a different way that doesn't harm the economy so much. Inslee's push to transition to electric vehicles in the state, Bird added, is not realistic due to a lack of infrastructure.
Bringing back Washington's timber industry, Bird said, would be a "win-win" for the state's environment and economy. Clearing out forests would reduce forest fire fuel, he said.
Mark Mullet
State Sen. Mark Mullet, D-Issaquah, is the other leading Democratic candidate running for governor. He's running as a more conservative alternative to Bob Ferguson.
"I'm fiscally conservative, but I'm socially liberal," Mullet said. "The example is, I 100% support women's reproductive rights and marriage equality. I have a voting record to go with that. At the same time, I voted against the long-term care payroll tax."
In politics, Mullet said his unique combination of stances have historically put him at odds with Republicans and Democrats in the state. But, he said, there's a "giant chunk" of the population of Washington that feels the same way he does. He said he would have an easier path to winning the governor's race in November against a Republican than Ferguson because his policy positions have broader appeal.
Mullet, 51, owns a handful of Ben & Jerry's and Zeeks Pizza franchises in the Seattle area. A father of six, he said the state's affordability crisis is top of mind for him.
The Issaquah resident acknowledged that the state needs to transition away from natural gas, calling it a "mathematical reality." But doing it too fast could be problematic, he added, putting costs on the backs of ratepayers in the state.
"We need to get clean electrons on the grid," he said. "If you transition away from natural gas before you have an abundance of new, clean electrons hitting the grid, I think you get really bad outcomes on the affordability front."
Overall, Mullet said he supports the state's Climate Commitment Act, but he understands residents' frustration over high fuel prices and argued that state lawmakers should have taken steps to address the policy's impact on the economy.
"Climate change is real, but so is the price of gas," he said. "You have to do both simultaneously."
Mullet said he wants to see more of what he calls working forests in the state — forests used for timber harvest. He said unmanaged forests create a "tinderbox that is ripe for wildfire danger.
"From my own party, there is what I view as a slightly more extreme angle to this," Mullet said, "which is: 'Let's quit harvesting trees for wood production and let's let trees just grow forever.' "
Washington's primary elections for governor and other statewide offices such as attorney general and lands commissioner will be held on Aug. 6. Ballots must be postmarked or placed in drop boxes by 8 p.m. on election day.
The top-two candidates in each race will advance to the general election on Nov. 5.
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