The Trump-tariff job crash that some predicted hasn’t materialized, but in Washington state, at least, the job market is feeling some definite motion sickness.
While unemployment remains fairly low — 4.5% in August — hiring back to Jan. 1 has been basically flat, according to the state Employment Security Department.
And though we won’t get September’s hiring and unemployment numbers until the federal government reopens, there are signs they might be worse.
The number of Washingtonians filing initial claims for state jobless benefits kicked up in recent weeks, state data shows.
Part of that increase comes from federal workers furloughed or laid off as a result of the Oct. 1 shutdown. Since then, ESD has averaged 78 claims a day from federal workers.
As important, continuing claims, which workers file each week they’re out of work, have also risen.
Continuing claims filed in August, September and early October were up 20% compared to the same period last year and up 70% versus to 2019, before the pandemic.
That could mean people “who are laid off are having a harder time getting back to work,” says Anneliese Vance-Sherman, ESD’s chief labor economist.
Other government data paints a similar picture of a cooling job market
Between January and July, Washington employers averaged 109,000 hires a month, down from 112,000 for the same period in 2024 and 137,000 in 2019, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Many factors are weighing on the job markets. Some employers have complained that the Trump administration's policy of heavy import tariffs, which are taxes paid by importers, are forcing them to trim costs and hiring.
Higher interest rates have also slowed hiring, and in some sectors, such as computers and software, employers like Microsoft and Amazon are now correcting for what is widely seen as too much hiring during the pandemic.
Whatever the causes, opinions vary widely on whether they're pushing us into another full-blown recession, when economic growth and hiring turn negative for an extended period.
Last month, Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, put the chances of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 30%, down from 40% this summer.
On the other hand, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said in August that 22 states, including Washington, were either already in recession or are on the edge.
Government forecasters in Washington are calling for gradual slowdown for the state economy and a gradual recovery several years out.
But the latest assessment by the state economic and revenue forecast council, in September, now expects only a 0.3% increase in employment for the year, and just 0.2% next year, which is around half of what it predicted in June.
Nationally, consumer confidence dropped 1.3 points in August, according to the The Conference Board. Survey results indicated less optimistic views of the current situation and increased pessimism about future employment prospects and income," according to the state council.
What does seem clear is that the job market is a little less friendly, and that workers have a little less confidence in their prospects.
Between January and July, Washington employers averaged 138,000 job openings a month, according to federal data.
That's 10% fewer than during the same period last year and 16% fewer than in 2019, BLS data shows.
Another sign of falling confidence: The number of workers who voluntarily quit each month averaged just 61,000 during the first seven months of 2025, versus 67,000 in 2024 year and 73,000 in 2019.
That's typically an indicator of anxiety over the ease of finding another job. During the ultratight job market of 2022, Washington's quits averaged 89,000 a month.
That all points to a stagnant job market that, while it doesn't appear to be falling off a cliff, is increasingly worrying for workers. "We know that stress is increasing under the surface, Vance-Sherman said.
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