In a statement released on Aug. 4, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (Northwest MLS) said the Western Washington real estate market saw an increase in inventory in July, rising to its highest levels since January 2019.
“Today’s buyers have their cups finally overflowing with options as residential inventory grows to about two months of supply,” said Dick Beeson, a real estate broker in Gig Harbor. “(Sellers) are starting to see that overpricing just ain’t in the cards right now.”
In Lewis County, the number of active listings is now more than twice July 2021 levels, rising 103.55% from 169 last July to 344 last month. That surpasses the neighboring counties of Grays Harbor, 77.27%, Cowlitz, 95.87%, and Pacific, 100%. Thurston County’s 107.16% increase in housing inventory compared to a year ago narrowly surpassed Lewis County’s increase.
“We are coming off the fevered pitch of a market that had tremendous velocity over the last few years. With listings starting to build again we are seeing a bit of a natural slowdown, yet still very much a sellers’ market,” said John Deely, executive vice president of Coldwell Banker Bain.
Lewis County also saw a monthly increase in listings compared to June, rising 18.21% in July, above the 11.92% increase over the same period last year. The increase in listings, along with a 28.91% decrease in closed sales compared to July 2021, and a 19.47% monthly decrease compared to June 2022, resulted in an increased median home sales price of only 5.07% compared to July 2021, below the 20% increase from June 2021 to June 2022.
The deceleration in real estate sales prices may be driven in part by an increase in the number of months worth of inventory Lewis County now has, though slower home price increases may be the result of seasonal variations, the July heat wave and summer travel. From June to July, Lewis County saw a 1.2 months worth increase in housing inventory. The county now has 3.78 months of housing inventory, ranking fourth among the 26 Western Washington counties Northwest MLS calculated, behind Columbia County’s 8, San Juan County’s 5.08 and Pacific County’s 3.81.
According to local real estate agent Eren Millam, Lewis County housing inventory levels are moving back toward 2020 levels even as home prices continue to rise.
“It’s still really low. We’re right around 2020 levels for supply and in general the market is normalizing in terms of inventory to where we were (before the COVID-19 pandemic),” said Millam. “But overall prices are still going up.”
Millam provided data showing closed sales in Lewis County had declined by 30 from June to July, reaching levels seen during the winter months of the past couple of years, when the real estate market generally cools down before heating back up as summer approaches, though still “well above” levels seen in the winter of 2019, shortly before the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Rising inventory hasn’t necessarily meant an improving real estate market for home buyers.
“With interest rates going up, it's hard for people to afford to buy homes,” Millam said.
Even with recent declines, closed sales are still higher relative to past years. Closed sales in July 2022, for example, are at the same level in Lewis County as they were in July 2006 and 2007, at the peak of the housing market bubble, despite significantly higher home prices. For Millam, increased home prices in the face of an elevated number of closed sales relative to historic levels indicates a level of demand for housing much higher than existed during the housing bubble of the 2000s.
Millam cautioned an increase in inventory doesn’t mean the Lewis County housing market is necessarily becoming more friendly to potential home buyers. Despite increased inventory from June, July posted the second highest median home price in Lewis County history, surpassed only by June’s numbers.
