Light rail trains won't arrive in West Seattle for another nine years, according to a schedule update issued Thursday by Sound Transit.
The new target is 2035 to deliver an enlarged Sodo Station, a high-rise Duwamish River train bridge, 3.9 miles of tracks, and peninsular stations at Delridge and Alaska Junction.
Sound Transit advertised a 2030 opening during the ST3 ballot campaign of 2016, when voters approved sales, car-tab and property tax increases to build a dozen rail and bus megaprojects including in West Seattle. The goal already slipped to 2032 during a realignment" caused by inflation early this decade.
More engineering research, and extra time to control skyrocketing costs, are to blame for tacking on three more years, said a blog post the agency sent via email blast Thursday afternoon.
"Though we know this shift is difficult news to folks who are eagerly awaiting light rail access in their communities, it represents a realistic delivery timeline that the agency can confidently stand behind," it said. The post said the 2035 date also was shared in a committee session Thursday.
Originally estimated at $2.3 billion (in 2015 dollars), cost projections soared past $7 billion (in present and future dollars) as officials realized the true costs of real estate, and of building a 160-foot-high bridge over sloppy soils at Harbor Island, while construction inflation rose by 40% to 70% regionally and nationally.
A new capital projects team says it clawed back some expenses by shrinking the future Sodo station for the new West Seattle line, by shifting turnaround tracks to devour less land at Alaska Junction, and most of all by scrapping the voter-approved Avalon Station, to make tunneling cheaper through the hillside. Brad Owen, acting deputy CEO of that division, says costs are now closer to $5 billion.
The line would ultimately carry a predicted 25,000 daily passengers, who would save 15 minutes per trip compared with a bus going downtown. However, ridership would be far less for many years until a connecting trackway from Sodo to downtown and Seattle Center is built. Sound Transit, so far, has deemed the final segment to Ballard unaffordable until 2042 in the best-case scenario.
As recently as this spring, the agency clung to a 2032 West Seattle date in its publications, even as it looked increasingly overoptimistic. At an April 1 community forum, Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson and Metropolitan King County Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda of West Seattle highlighted "shovels in the ground" this year, to encourage hope and sustain political momentum, as the public soaked in news of the agency's $35 billion shortfall that's causing delays and belt-tightening for other projects.
Sound Transit's fresh 2035 revelation comes ironically (or perhaps by public relations design) on the same day the agency took several steps to move West Seattle's route forward.
The System Expansion Committee on Thursday endorsed buying 55 properties, to make way for West Seattle tracks and stations, while boosting the right-of-way budget to $465 million. Those are full and partial buyouts or condemnations that run the gamut from houses to greenbelt to industrial sites. Appraisals, offer sheets, sales negotiations and court filings are expected to unfold gradually for two years, if the full board approves the plan Aug. 27.
An additional $300 million is being budgeted to make headway next year on final engineering design, while preparing for tunnel and elevated construction.
Sound Transit also reached an accord with Seattle City Light and Sodo businesses to relocate electric transmission towers in a way that reduces the need for construction on Sixth Avenue South.
Preliminary finance reports assume $1 billion and hope for $3 billion in federal grants for West Seattle. However, the Trump administration has held up $1.9 billion in pending money for qualified "blue state projects including in New York and Los Angeles. Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Everett, has criticized the holdup, saying it could clog the pipeline for projects in many states, including Washington.
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