Washington’s Third Congressional District remains a tossup with a week until election day, according to new Civic Heartbeat polling released last week by the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI).
Democratic U.S. Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican challenger John Braun are statistically tied in NPI’s latest poll of the district.
The survey, conducted by Change Research (a Democratic-aligned firm) from Oct. 19 through Oct. 21 among 551 likely general election voters, found Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun each receiving 43% support on the initial ballot question, with 14% unsure.
After undecided voters were asked who they would choose if they had to pick, the aggregate results were:
• Gluesenkamp Perez: 45%
• Braun: 44%
• Not sure: 8%
• Would not vote: 3%
The symbolic lead for MGP, a product of rounding, does not establish an advantage for either candidate. The survey’s modeled margin of error is 4.3%.
“For the fourth consecutive time in two years, the Northwest Progressive Institute’s Civic Heartbeat polling has found a tied race in WA-03, Washington’s tossup congressional district, with a nearly identical number of voters saying they have or will vote for each of the two major party candidates vying to represent the district in the U.S. House,” NPI founder and Executive Director Andrew Villeneuve said in a news release. "We assess that Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is running a competitive race and is well positioned to win another term in Congress in a district that has leaned Republican for decades, but could be getting bluer, especially as its population center of Clark County, home to America’s Vancouver, grows."
The finding mirrors NPI’s July survey finding, which also found Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun tied in a simulated head-to-head matchup before the top two primary election. That earlier poll was conducted by Emerson College Polling for NPI, another one of the trusted pollsters NPI regularly works with, according to the news release.
Asked to select up to three issues influencing their vote, half of respondents chose corruption and abuses of power by federal officials, making it the most frequently selected concern. The five leading responses were:
• Corruption and abuses of power by federal officials: 50%
• The price of groceries and other everyday necessities: 41%
• The price of gasoline and diesel: 34%
• Mass deportations and immigration enforcement: 33%
• The cost of healthcare and prescription drugs: 30%
Neither congressional candidate has a net positive favorability rating.
Gluesenkamp Perez is viewed favorably by 25% and unfavorably by 52%; Braun is viewed favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 46%.
Donald Trump is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 54%, including 50% who view him very unfavorably. Both major political parties also receive more unfavorable than favorable ratings.
Sixteen percent of respondents reported having already voted, while 64% rated their motivation to vote at ten out of ten. Among those two groups combined, Gluesenkamp Perez received 49% support to Braun’s 45%, with 4% unsure and 2% saying they would not vote in the contest.
This subgroup finding does not establish a statistically clear lead, and subsamples have higher margins of error.
The findings and accompanying analysis are available on NPI’s Cascadia Advocate at https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/.
