In Idaho, a Republican stronghold, the closest Democrat in this year’s election to securing a seat in Congress or statewide office was 11 points behind.
The candidate, Ellie Gilbreath, was trying to stop Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson’s bid for reelection to a 15th term.
Across the country last week, Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress, won governorships in most states and made headway in state legislatures.
But by the time the national blue wave — or tsunami, as some are calling it — hit Idaho, the tide had turned it into a ripple.
Idaho Democrats made modest gains. They swept full control of three legislative districts, gaining six more legislative seats, a shift that does little to chip away at Republicans’ supermajority control of the Legislature.
And a closer look at election results shows that across the board, Democrats captured slightly more votes against Republican incumbents in statewide office and congress, who easily won reelection. But in all of those races, Democratic victory was still far off. No Democrat has won a statewide office in the state since 2002, and the last Democratic congressman in Idaho served in 2010.
If Democrats want to upset decades of Idaho political history by winning a top of the ticket race, they have a long way to go.
On average, Democrats gained 6 points of the vote share in federal and state races compared to the last time those offices were up for election. Still, Idaho Democrats this year were an average of 27 points behind Republicans, according to an analysis of election results by the Idaho Capital Sun.
Boise State University political scientist Jaclyn Kettler wasn’t surprised that the blue wave didn’t carry Democrats through in Idaho.
“Idaho is a solidly Republican state. We don’t tend to see too many competitive races” in the general election for statewide races, she said in an interview. “ … It’s just solid enough Republican that it’s hard for even a blue wave in other areas of the country to have too much influence, especially for those statewide races.”
The Idaho Democratic Party also boasted another gain: Democrats got more of the vote in 67 legislative races than they did in 2024.
This year’s election results are unofficial until they are certified by the State Board of Canvassers, which meets Nov. 24.
Idaho Democratic Party Chair Lauren Necochea said the state did indeed see a blue wave.
“We’re a red state, where it looks different,” she said, adding that many conservatives had moved into the state in recent years.
Democrats, she said, reached out to many voters and it shows.
“We were able to be specific about what we wanted to do as we campaigned. And I think voters are getting tired of the culture war rhetoric that Republicans rely on, and they’re looking for more common sense solutions to their everyday challenges. That’s where we were. We met voters where they were,” Necochea said.
Idaho Republican Party Chairwoman Dorothy Moon said she saw minimal signs of the blue wave in Idaho. Turnout in some Democratic leaning parts of the state, she said, was up. But Republicans in higher office were reelected, and voters rejected Proposition 1, a ballot initiative that would’ve repealed the state’s near-total abortion ban, by a nearly 56% no vote.
“I think we had a great night,” Moon said. “We fended off the blue wave.”
And she noted that Republicans maintained control of a North Idaho legislative district, District 6 that includes Moscow. Democrats ran for every legislative seat there.
Necochea said high Republican turnout for Prop 1 was a problem for Democrats.
“Our hypothesis is that conservative churches galvanized conservative voters to go to the polls to vote against Prop 1,” Necochea said. “And absent Prop 1, there would not have been as much money and there wouldn’t have been electioneering from the pulpit driving voters to the polls.”
State data on who turned out to vote this year isn’t available yet. Nearly 99% of voters who cast ballots voted on the ballot initiative, state data shows.
The closest a Democrat got in Idaho to unseating a Republican was in the race against incumbent Simpson, a longtime congressman. Gilbreath, a Democrat, was only about 11 points behind Simpson, with 40.3% of the vote compared to his 51.7%. She outperformed Simpson’s last two Democratic challengers. (Two independents and a libertarian took 8% of the vote in the race this year.)
Necochea said that Gilbreath ran a “fantastic campaign focused on issues that Idaho voters care about: Making life affordable, protecting public lands, personal liberties.”
And, she said, Gilbreath ran in a congressional district that didn’t see as many conservatives moving in than the state’s other congressional district.
“I think we have in her district more longtime Idahoans who lean conservative perhaps but are looking for common sense and common ground, and are willing to consider voting for a Democrat,” Necochea said.
Gilbreath couldn’t be immediately reached for comment.
In the race for the state’s attorney general, Democrat Lori Hickman had the smallest gains compared to recent Democratic challengers for the office. She picked up about 2.8 more points than the last Democratic challenger in 2022, Tom Arkoosh.
And even though GOP incumbent Raúl Labrador had a commanding lead, the gap between him and Hickman, of 19.7 points, was smaller than many other challenges. But Hickman still outperformed Democratic challengers in the race for that office for the past three election cycles, back to 2014, eight years before Labrador was elected.
In some races, Democrats this year didn’t even have the best performance that Democratic candidates have put up in runs for that office in recent years.
In the governor’s race, Democrat Terri Pickens had the biggest swing — gaining 12 points against incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little compared to 2022 Democratic challenger Stephen Heidt. But Pickens performance, with 32% of the vote, was still behind Democrat Paulette Jordan’s 2018 run against Little when the seat was open. Jordan got 38% of the vote.
In the race for Idaho’s first congressional district, Democratic challenger Kaylee Peterson performed about 3 points better than in her last run against incumbent Republican Rep. Russ Fulcher in 2024, and more than 2 points better than her first run against him in 2022. But she faced the biggest point gap: She was 35.5 points behind Fulcher. Peterson clinching nearly 28.8% of the vote this year was still shy of Democrat Christina McNeil’s 2018 run against Fulcher, where she got 30.8% of the vote.
In Idaho’s U.S. Senate race this year, the Democrat, David Roth, dropped out after pressure from supporters of independent candidate Todd Achilles; leaders of Ada County Democrats also asked Roth to withdraw. Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, only performed slightly better than the last Democrat to challenge Risch in 2020, Jordan, who had also ran for governor.
Achilles received about 33.5% of the vote, compared to Jordan’s 33.2%. In 2014, Democratic U.S. Senate challenger Nels Mitchell got more of the vote, 34.7%.
Two Democratic candidates whose campaigns raised $0 — secretary of state hopeful Shawn Keenan, and state treasurer challenger Kevin A. Jones — outperformed the last Democratic run for those offices. (Keenan ran against Republican Phil McGrane in 2022, when the office had no incumbent.)
“It tells me that even when voters weren’t sure about the details of the person on the ballot,” Necochea said, “and let’s face it, we sometimes have a four-page ballot, and you don’t always research every single candidate. Most people don’t have time to do that, but they were using that Democratic label as a clue that that was someone who wasn’t part of the Republican grift machine, was someone who’s going to be looking out for regular Idahoans, and so they used that clue to vote for them.”
Moon, head of the Idaho Republican Party, doesn’t see the state becoming politically competitive anytime soon.
“We’re gonna work very hard to maintain our Republican base, increase the numbers, broaden our base as well, and make sure the issues that are important to everybody here in Idaho, that we keep Idaho Idaho and keep it conservative,” she said.
