The number of Washington students going to college within a year of graduating from high school took a sharp hit during the pandemic, a concerning trend that could exacerbate racial inequities in higher education, a new study shows.
Only about 50% of Washington's high school class of 2021 enrolled in a two- or four-year institution within a year of high school graduation, according to the analysis by the Washington Student Achievement Council. That's a nine percentage point drop from the class of 2019.
Those numbers are lower than the national average. In 2020 — the latest year for which data are available — about 63% of high school graduates nationwide were enrolled in college by fall. In that same year, 51% of Washington students were enrolled within a year after graduating.
"We are in what I'd call a crisis mode," said Michael Meotti, WSAC's executive director.
It's possible college-going enrollment could bounce back as the pandemic fades, Meotti said. But he suspects the numbers reveal a larger truth — that society is undergoing "a huge transition" as the allure of a college degree is starting to fade.
Yet Washington's economy relies heavily on employees with more post-high school training than economies in many other states. WSAC's job, Meotti said, is to make sure "Washington residents are not left out" when it comes to getting those highly skilled, high-paying jobs.
The report also showed declines in enrollment varied by race, with Hispanic or Latino students experiencing the largest drop in college-going. Only about 40% of Hispanic/Latino students who graduated in 2021 enrolled in a two- or four-year college or university a year after graduating. That's down 14 percentage points from 2019, and it was a larger decline than all other racial groups.
Meotti noted that before the pandemic, the rate of Hispanic and Latino students going to college was growing faster than most other groups. That may be why Hispanic and Latino students were most likely to retreat from college when the pandemic hit. "It's a scenario vulnerable to shock or upset," he said.
WSAC has a goal of helping 70% of residents ages 25-44 earn some type of postsecondary credential, yet even before the pandemic, college-going rates in Washington were stagnant, Meotti said.
The report shows that among the state's higher education institutions, two-year schools — primarily state community colleges — saw the biggest decline. In 2019, about a quarter of high school students enrolled in a community college or other two-year school, such as a trade school. In 2021, that number fell to 19%.
Four-year schools — colleges and universities — fared somewhat better. In 2019, about 34% of Washington's high school graduates enrolled in a four-year institution. That number fell to 30% in 2020, then recovered slightly, by one percentage point, in 2021.
The enrollment decline comes at a time when the state's high school graduation rate is improving, which suggests that more students are ready for college than ever before.
In 2022, about 82% of Washington students graduated from high school, up from 76% in 2013. Even though more students are graduating — and presumably ready to continue their educations — fewer are actually enrolling in college.
In 2019, the state Legislature made significant changes to the state's financial aid program, creating the Washington College Grant. It's considered one of the most generous financial aid packages in the country, and many legislators hoped that change would boost college enrollment.
But this report shows the state must do much more than offer money to get more students to keep their education going beyond high school, Meotti said. He said the state is going to have to tackle the issue on many fronts, including talking to families from lower-income communities about college long before their children reach high school.
The data for the analysis comes from the state's Education Research and Data Center, and was analyzed by WSAC, a state policy agency that works to improve postsecondary education rates.
