Voters will help shape the future of natural gas use in Washington in November by weighing in on a controversial initiative targeting natural gas use in the state.
While supporters of Initiative 2066 say it will enshrine a Washingtonian's right to dictate their own energy choices, opponents worry the initiative's sweeping language would hamper the state's efforts to address climate change, including the desire to transition away from natural gas to more efficient and renewable sources.
If approved, the initiative would do away with portions of legislation signed into law earlier this year by Gov. Jay Inslee that seeks to expedite the transition from natural gas for large combination utilities. The bill defines large combination utilities as those that provide electricity to more than 800,000 customers and natural gas to more than 500,000 customers.
Puget Sound Energy, the state's largest utility, is likely what legislators had in mind when they drafted the bill, as they are the only utility in the state with enough customers.
But the initiative's approval in November would have much broader effects outside of the Puget Sound. The measure would repeal recent changes to Washington's building code that heavily incentivize installing heat pumps and similar electrical appliances in new construction, instead of natural gas appliances. It also would enshrine natural gas use in the state by preventing cities and counties from adopting energy codes that prohibit, restrict or discourage the use of gas.
Proponents of the measure, including prime sponsor the Building Industry Association of Washington, Washington Hospitality Association and Let's Go Washington, have used messaging that refers to the state's efforts as a "ban on natural gas," but no such ban exists. The new law does not ban natural gas in the state or forbid Puget Sound Energy from providing it to customers.
Puget Sound Energy said in written statements issued when the bill was passed, and in response to inquiries about the impact the initiative would have on the utility, that a lot of "disinformation" is being spread about the bill. It says it is a planning measure meant to ensure a thoughtful transition off of natural gas, and that "nothing in the bill forces electrification."
A spokeswoman for the utility said Puget Sound Energy does not have an official position on either the bill or the initiative.
"It is a planning bill, and there will be three years of rulemaking and work before we submit an integrated system plan to our regulators," the utility said in a written statement. "That will only be a plan — it will not include a request to increase rates."
Still, builders association executive director Greg Lane said the state is headed toward an outright ban, and approving the initiative will ensure that doesn't happen.
"The bill this session that they passed doesn't yet apply outside of the Puget Sound Energy service area, but that was just the first step," Lane said. "They've been very clear that they want to ban it statewide."
Decreasing natural gas as part of stated clean energy, climate goals
Brian Henning, director of the Gonzaga Institute for Climate, Water and the Environment, said it's logical the state is eyeing decreasing natural gas usage to address climate change.
"There is no way to avoid catastrophic climate change without eventually ending the use of all fossil fuels, which includes coal, oil as well as natural gas," Henning said. "They need, ultimately, to remain in the ground if we're going to avoid catastrophic climate change."
Henning said the transition from fossil fuels can be simplified into three steps: decarbonizing the electrical grid, shifting transportation to the electrical grid, and transitioning to electrical heating elements rather than those fueled by methane, which is commonly referred to as natural gas. Utilities in Washington have shifted at least partially to sources of energy that use less carbon as required by the state's Clean Energy Transformation Act. Transitioning to electric heating is what the new law was intended to expedite.
Henning said the longer elected leaders and society at large wait to wean off fossil fuels, the more expensive and disruptive the transition will be. He said building code updates that took effect this year are a good first step.
"I liken it to, you sort of need to stop digging the hole," Henning said. "The first step of finding yourself in a deep hole is to stop digging, and that's what the change in the building code is doing, is saying new construction, at least. Then we can work on, how do we transition old house stock? And that's going to be a really big challenge."
Turning away from natural gas comes with tangible environmental benefits, Henning said, referencing research that shows methane has a global warming potential nearly 87 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. He also pointed to the recently released 2023 State of the Climate report created by climate scientists across the country that found greenhouse gas concentrations last year were at their highest recorded level, including methane.
Methane seeps into the atmosphere in a variety of ways, including releases at oil drills, fracking sites and leaks through the processing and transportation of it. A small portion also comes from the appliances that use natural gas, such as furnaces and stoves, Henning said.
"That small leakage actually creates a quite significant problem," Henning said. "According to one estimate, when you get around a 3% leakage rate in transmission, processing, storage, anything beyond 3% and natural gas is actually worse than coal in terms of its overall global warming potential."
A 2022 study by researchers at University of California, Davis and the Western Cooling Efficiency Center found that implementing heat pumps in homes in place of natural gas furnaces can help reduce those emissions by up to 53% in a 15-year forecast. He noted the state's electrical grid relies heavily on hydroelectric dams, and only continues to get cleaner, which can help cut those emissions even more.
There's also health concerns associated with the use of natural gas in homes, with a 2024 study out of Stanford University finding that burning methane in homes releases pollutants that can harm an individual's health.
Henning, sharing his own opinion, said the initiative could be detrimental to the state's efforts to address climate change. He said transitioning away from natural gas is similar to other scientific advancements, likening the measure to an initiative seeking to protect the centuries-old practice of bloodletting, where physicians would drain blood from a patient to cure an illness.
"From my perspective, it's really obvious that we need to figure out ways of transitioning our heating to nonfossil fuel sources," Henning said. "So this initiative is deeply problematic because it's not appreciating the fact that we have no choice if we're going to address the crisis but to transition off of all fossil fuels, methane included."
The arguments for, against
It took a whirlwind 49-day effort involving multiple industry associations, hundreds of volunteers and the support of multimillionaire Brian Heywood for Initiative 2066 to gather enough signatures to qualify for the ballot this fall.
Lane said they did more than just qualify, passing the benchmark needed to place the measure on the ballot by more than 100,000 signatures, thanks to assistance from the conservative coalition bankrolled by Heywood, who leads Let's Go Washington.
Heywood and his coalition put six initiatives in front of the Washington State Legislature earlier this year. Three of the measures involving police pursuits, a "parental bill of rights" and a statewide ban on income tax were adopted by the Legislature. The remaining initiatives focusing on the state's capital gains tax, state long-term care benefit program WACare and the cap-and-trade system will be decided on in November by voters.
Initiative 2066 is the only one of the four appearing on the ballot this fall that does not originate in the Heywood camp, but Lane said they were instrumental in getting the measure on the ballot with their significant volunteer signature gathering network. Other supportive organizations include the Washington Realtors, the Associated General Contractors and the concrete and aggregate industries, Lane said.
Lane said his industry in particular is worried phasing out natural gas will make construction costs for new commercial and residential properties more expensive and will place an undue burden on small businesses and residents to convert to electricity, which also carries a hefty price tag. He said those increased construction costs are passed down to homebuyers and renters.
"It adds about $20,000 to the cost of a new home by dictating that only electrical appliances can be used in the home," Lane said. "So that was our big concern, is that it adds, again, more costs to housing, which is already extremely unaffordable for the vast majority of Washingtonians."
He added that in Eastern Washington, reliability is also a concern, as older heat pumps can struggle in cold temperatures and rely on the electrical grid, meaning the ability to heat a home would be lost during an outage.
While there are some natural gas heating sources that might work in a power outage, such as some gas fireplace inserts, the usual main source of heat in homes, natural gas furnaces, usually don't work in power outages because they rely partially on electricity.
The Washington Hospitality Association, a co-sponsor of the initiative, also is concerned about the potential impacts to small businesses like restaurants, particularly those serving Asian cuisines. Anthony Anton, president and CEO of the association, said those vendors have to rely on natural gas as many of their menu items are traditionally cooked over an open flame.
"There's no real equipment out there to replace that equipment in Asian kitchens, not at the consistency and level and what the restaurant community there feels like they really need to be successful," Anton said. "So there's a very unique impact, particularly in that community, and in Washington, it's a huge part of our cuisine."
The costs of the eventual transition are another central concern for those in the hospitality industry, especially as many in the field are still recovering from the effects of the pandemic, Anton said. Many are still dealing with massive debt accrued during the pandemic and could not cover the costs of a remodel, new kitchen equipment or a new heating system.
"The reason that that's so important is the cost to convert is huge, and they just don't have that kind of funding," Anton said.
Those concerns are short-sighted, and purposefully ignore the long-term benefits of transitioning to clean energy, said Andrew Villeneuve, executive director of the Northwest Progressive Institute.
"They're basically saying we can't have anything that incentivizes or phases out gas, we have to lock ourselves into gas," Villeneuve said. "And that's not a compatible objective with our state's goals of having a 100% clean electric grid and lowering our pollution that we're emitting into the atmosphere."
Villeneuve said his organization also takes issue with the messaging proponents of the measure are using.
"There is no gas ban; they made it up, and they know it," Villeneuve said. "They know they're lying ... For us, that was a huge deal, as we don't like it when the voters are being lied to."
The building and hospitality associations aren't the only ones worried about costs associated with the transition to clean energy. Villeneuve said his organization, and others in opposition to the measure, are worried the initiative will prevent the necessary planning needed for utilities to make the transition, and could actually make natural gas more expensive for customers "in the short, medium and long term."
Essentially, Villeneuve argues that the general long-term direction will be for homeowners and others to switch to electric heating even if the initiative passes. That will leave fewer gas customers to pay to maintain natural gas infrastructure, forcing their utility bills up without providing assistance for them to switch.
"The utilities will not be able to provide a just, responsible, stable transition, and so the people who remain on gas will be paying more because the base will shrink," Villeneuve said. "This is basic energy economics, and it's like proponents don't understand that, or they don't care."
Caitlin Krenn, climate and clean energy director for Washington Conservation Action, echoed Villeneuve's concerns.
She added that low-income households may be the most affected, as the initiative's broad language prohibiting jurisdictions from taking any action to discourage the use of natural gas could do away with incentives and programs intended to assist the less fortunate with electrification.
"If this passes, it would probably put a halt on those things, which means that money is not going to families," Krenn said.
That same section of the initiative may also strip control from cities and counties, as it would prevent them from adopting codes that fit with their community's needs and desires, she said.
Gavin Tenold, owner of the Spokane-based electrification company Northwest Renewables, said heat pumps are more cost-effective and efficient to run, so concerns from the proponents about initial costs are usually outweighed by the long-term returns.
He too is worried about the implications the initiative would have on the programs in place aimed to assist with those initial costs and the energy code he said is essentially a game plan "focused on making energy affordable for all of us in the newly built environment."
"We can't go back to a reality where we don't have intelligent plans in place for the future," Tenold said. "And I'd hate to see these programs taken away."
Tenold said concerns over how effective heat pumps are in colder climates like Eastern Washington have been blown out of proportion and usually rely on outdated information. He said the units used to struggle when temperatures outside were frigid, but most are well-equipped for the cold even at a commercial scale. He heats and cools his entire 10,000-square-foot facility with a single heat pump.
"If you look at heat pump penetration in the Scandinavian regions, it is remarkably higher than we have here in Eastern Washington, and they have significantly more extreme winter conditions than we do," Tenold said.
"The heat pump systems that we install here at Northwest Renewables are able to provide 80% of their rated capacity at negative 14 degrees Fahrenheit, and that's just what they're rated to."
Many of the opponents to the initiative said voters should keep in mind that it was brought forward by special interest groups with a vested interest. Krenn emphasized that point as one of many reasons voters should tick no on not just Initiative 2066, but all four that will appear on the ballot this fall.
"We are really looking at the big picture of all four initiatives ballots this November, and all four initiatives are being supported and very actively campaigned for by Let's Go Washington, run by Brian Heywood," Krenn said. "What they all have in the common is that they are each trying to roll back progress that has been made and benefit wealthy individuals and special interest groups at the expense of everyone else."
Anton countered that voting yes on the initiative would prevent those on the west side of the state from enacting policies that don't fit with Eastern Washington's values.
"I think a lot of people in Eastern Washington that I talk to say these things start over in these corners of Western Washington, and then they grow a little bit, and then Western Washington legislators vote to make them statewide," Anton said. "This is an effort where we can stop it in its tracks."
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