For years, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, of Washougal, has drawn national attention as one of few Democrats diverging from her party on key House votes.
On Tuesday, she rode Democrats’ blue wave to a comfortable victory and a third term.
The political dynamics that have made Gluesenkamp Perez a national figure could shift in the next Congress. A larger Democratic majority may give her more freedom to vote independently — and dull the national attention when she does so — while a growing contingent of moderates could give her more allies and influence.
Democrats are projected to surpass 250 House seats, marking their largest majority since the 2008 election and cementing a decisive shift in power in Washington, D.C. Incoming Democrats span the political spectrum, including what appears will be a wider Blue Dog Coalition, chaired by Gluesenkamp Perez, whose members describe themselves as pragmatic, fiscally-responsible and willing to cross party lines.
“When there are more Democrats, and those Democrats are aligning more closely with party leadership … the fact that they don’t have her vote in some cases won’t matter,” said Mark Stephan, a political science professor at Washington State University, Vancouver. “She won’t affect the outcome and she can respond to the district and her own belief that she should be a bit more moderate.”
Meanwhile, “if there’s a growing number of people that believe there needs to be a moderate wing to the party, this could be a slight counterweight to the left, then she becomes more influential internally.”
For a Democrat whose central pitch has been independence from political party lines, a larger Democratic caucus, and its wider voting margins, could give her more room to maintain that approach with less backlash, political scientists said. Whether a doubling in the size of her Blue Dogs gives her greater sway in the House, however, remains to be seen.
“This is going to take weeks and months to shake out,” Stephan said.
The Seattle Times called the race for Gluesenkamp Perez on Tuesday night; Republican challenger state Sen. John Braun conceded Thursday. Ballots are still being counted, and as of Thursday, she held a 9-percentage-point lead — a notable margin in the swing district that backed Donald Trump three times and a significant departure from her two previous elections. She clinched the seat by a margin of roughly 1% in 2022 and 4% in 2024.
Several political observers said that she, like Democrats across the nation, were bolstered by the sweeping national tide against Republicans.
“John Braun in a vacuum is an ideal candidate for this district and probably in past cycles would have comfortably won Washington 3,” said Ben Gaskin, a political science professor at Lewis and Clark College. “The simplest answer is also the most accurate: Democrats were enthusiastic across the country. Republicans were demobilized and demotivated across the country.”
“And this large wave that we saw from South Carolina and Florida, all the way to Washington, is the biggest explanation for Gluesenkamp Perez expanding her lead over the previous two cycles and winning really comfortably and even more than the polls suggested,” Gaskin added. “In a blue wave, blue tsunami, the Republican was going to be sunk in this district.”
That same blue wave will dilute the power of any one Democrat or faction in the next Congress, said Mark Smith, a political science professor at the University of Washington. This grants members like Gluesenkamp Perez more latitude: Her vote is less likely to determine whether legislation passes or fails.
Party leadership can therefore afford her divergence on some votes, Smith said.
“She could still take some kind of stands and votes that people in the party view as odd or eccentric,” Smith added, and she likely will, “even if doesn’t have much tangible impact.”
The result could be less scrutiny of her votes, political experts said, and more opportunity to reinforce the independent image that has helped her appeal to moderate and independent voters in Southwest Washington.
“This will be good for her to burnish her independent image to vote against the party on a number of issues that she cares about, without harming the overall party or getting as much flak from the party for doing that,” Gaskin said.
Meanwhile, the Blue Dog Coalition may grow from 10 members to more than 20. Other incoming Democratic members may also strengthen the moderate and centrist wings of the House Democratic House caucus. In Texas, Blue Dog PAC-backed Bobby Pulido, a Tejano star from South Texas, unseated Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the state’s 15th Congressional District. Like Gluesenkamp Perez, he often courted voters by dismissing party lines in favor of district loyalty. In North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, Democrat Jamie Ager, also a Blue Dog PAC-backed candidate, flipped a seat held by Republicans for more than a decade.
“The way she becomes relevant moving forward is having a larger set of Democrats who are part of the Blue Dog bloc, or a moderate bloc,” Stephan said. “Then that becomes a really interesting part of the decision-making if enough of them are willing to vote with Republicans on a particular bill, then the Democrats have to ask if they’re going to accommodate those members or lose the vote.”
The test now, political experts said, may not be whether she can cross the aisle while in the minority, but whether she can build consensus within her party while in the majority.
