In a recent briefing about Lewis County’s proposed dam, reported by The Chronicle, local officials were told that if the atmospheric rivers that devastated Snohomish and Skagit counties had been “maybe 150 miles south … we would have had another ’96, another ’07 level flood.” That got me thinking about some other “what ifs” when it comes to the approach to reduce flood damage in the Chehalis River Basin that is moving toward a pivotal decision point.
In 2026, the Chehalis Basin Board will decide whether the dam will be part of its much-anticipated Long-term Strategy (LTS) recommendation to the Legislature.
What if, in the 17 years since 2007, we had stepped up efforts to floodproof, elevate and in some cases relocate at-risk homes and other structures?
What if we had curtailed business as usual development in the flood plain?
What if headwater forests had been managed to restore their natural flood-absorbing properties instead of logged off in short rotations as they have been for decades? Estimates vary, but if permitting and construction move forward without much resistance, a big “if,” the dam might be operational by 2040.
What if, in those next 15 or so years, we got serious about getting people, homes and businesses out of harm’s way, fixing land use laws and treating our forests as the asset they can be for flood resilience?
What if we spent even half of the potential $2 billion-plus price tag of the dam on all that? Then maybe Lewis County could move beyond its obsessive focus on building an expensive, controversial dam with no plan to pay for it, or who will own and operate it.
As we learned from this latest series of storms, it’s folly to think we can control mother nature. From Skagit down through Snohomish, King and Pierce counties, dams were tested to their limits while state officials and scientists warned they will only come under more stress from climate change.
The devastating floods that swept through the northern end of Western Washington were driven, importantly, by a series of atmospheric rivers, not just one, the scenario that creates the kind of widespread devastation we just witnessed.
What if Lewis County’s dam, against long odds, is built?
One thing won’t boil down to “what if.” We can 100% count on it being tested eventually by not one, but a series of storms. If the temporary reservoir behind the dam fills up from the deluge of that first atmospheric river, it would surely be overwhelmed by a second and third.
Fortunately, there are many proven, cost effective, ways to address catastrophic flooding that don’t involve building a dam. Let’s heed the lessons of the past month and change course now. Future generations will thank us.
Lee First
Rochester
