Support for President Joe Biden remains strong in Washington, even as large numbers of Democrats and independents in the state say he should withdraw from the race, a new statewide poll shows.
For Washington's moderate and liberal-minded voters, the fear of a second Trump term acts as a girding for the state's blue reputation, even in the face of concerns about Biden's fitness.
Should Biden leave the race, Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed by voters as the most favored replacement. But her numbers are nearly identical to Biden's, suggesting support for the Democratic ticket is not based on any one individual.
Meanwhile, enthusiasm for former President Donald Trump, while fervent in some parts of the state, runs up against a ceiling that does not appear to have moved since his unambiguous loss here four years ago. The poll was conducted before the assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend.
The poll shows Biden holds a 14-point lead over Trump among likely Washington voters. The margin is within spitting distance of Biden's 19-point victory here in 2020 and strongly suggests the state will go blue for the 10th straight time.
The last time Washington voted Republican was for Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Out of 708 likely voters contacted between July 10 and 13, 50% supported Biden to Trump's 36%. Small slices supported a third-party candidate or hadn't made up their mind — 6% and 8% respectively.
Voters are largely sticking with their party affiliation, with roughly 90% of both Democrats and Republicans saying they'll vote for their party's nominee.
Biden is winning self-identified independents by 11 points — off a hair from his 15-point margin in the 2020 election, but one that may grow as undecided voters commit or backers of third-party candidates change their minds, as the poll suggests they're open to doing.
Biden has been dogged in recent weeks by calls for him to drop out of the race. Though voters have said for months that his age is a concern, his shaky debate performance blasted those worries into the public sphere.
Although a majority of Washington voters say they'll ultimately vote for Biden in November, a third of the Democrats and independents who plan to do so said he should withdraw from the race. Another 14% said they weren't sure what Biden should do, while half of Biden's voters said he should continue running.
Sandy Todd of Lynnwood plans to vote for "whoever the Democrat is." While she supports most — but not all — of what Biden has done, she's primarily concerned about Trump returning to office.
"I fear for our democracy, our republic," Todd, 70, said. "It's going away."
At the same time, Todd believes Biden should withdraw from the race. After watching the debate, she concluded that, while he has moments of clarity, "something is wrong with him." She's become frustrated that Democrats haven't done more to get him to back out.
"I think they're dragging their feet," she said. "They're not acting decisively, and because of that, they're going to lose this election."
A majority of Democrats are loyal to Biden — 59% said he should continue running — while nearly half of independents said he should withdraw. Backers of Trump were not asked whether Biden should withdraw.
A thin majority of non-Trump voters said Vice President Kamala Harris should become the Democratic nominee should Biden ultimately drop out. A third said someone else.
However, Harris' support in Washington is nearly identical to Biden's, improving on his margin over Trump by just one percentage point.
Shasti Conrad, chair of the Washington State Democratic Party, said her conversations with voters led her to believe that Biden is still the consensus pick to head the ticket. He won the primary here and removing him would disenfranchise those who voted for him, she said.
At the same time, she said voters are clear about the "binary" choice before them, which is not dependent on any one candidate atop the Democratic ticket.
"It's democracy versus authoritarianism and fascism," she said. "That's what we're up against. "
Biden's lead over Trump, while comfortable, runs behind support for Democrat Sen. Maria Cantwell, who's enjoying a more than 20-point lead over her Republican opponent, Dr. Raul Garcia. That trend of Biden trailing members of his own party is repeating itself across the country, most notably in swing states like Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Among Democrats, the top issue in this year's election was "protecting democracy," with 88% saying it was important. A clear majority also identified abortion access, gun safety and climate change as top issues.
Border safety was the most cited issue by Republicans — 82% said it was a top concern. Roughly half named crime, homelessness and cost of living as important.
Like in much of the country, Trump enjoys strong support among more rural voters with fewer years of formal schooling. Voters with only a high school education break for Trump in large numbers. Biden's backing comes from more highly educated voters, with large margins in the Greater Seattle area.
Chairman of the state Republican Party, Jim Walsh, said polls are interesting but "should always be taken with a grain of salt." He rejected that the results of the previous election could have any bearing on this year's.
"The 2024 general election in Washington will be very different than the 2020 general election," he said.
The poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public. The margin of error for questions about candidate preferences is plus or minus 5 percentage points. That interval is larger in the poll's subcategories.
More poll results will be released in the coming days on subjects including the initiatives on Washington's November ballot, the effect of Trump's felony charges on voter preference and the state of democracy.
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