KELSO, Cowlitz County — On the Thursday before the consequential midterm election, Mike Kayser still wasn't sure who he wants to represent this swing district in Southwest Washington. It's the tightest congressional race in the state — and one of the tightest nationwide — and he knows every vote counts.
“They're two pretty good candidates," Kayser, 70, said of the Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, whom he voted for before, and her Republican challenger, state Sen. John Braun. "Both candidates have good business sense. Both seem to think things through."
But casting a ballot in Washington's 3rd Congressional District is likely to help tilt the balance of power in the U.S. House. That means his vote isn't just about Gluesenkamp Perez or Braun, the retired farmer said, rolling his eyes on a bench outside of the Cowlitz County Administration Building — mere feet from the ballot box he plans to return to soon.
"You get Mike Johnson, or you get Hakeem Jeffries," referring to the possible next House speaker. Neither sounds appealing to him.
"I'll keep mulling it over," Kayser said on the sunny Thursday morning, smacking a voters pamphlet against his knee. "I'll make a decision before Tuesday."
The race for the 3rd has reached a fever pitch. Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun are racing to make their last appeals to voters. Millions of dollars are driving advertisements, mailers and digital outreach in the district that borders the Pacific Ocean and Oregon and stretches into the Cascade Mountains. Attack ads are rampant. Some lawns have disappeared under campaign signs. And recent polling shows the candidates virtually tied.
As of Wednesday, about 35% of voters in Cowlitz County have returned their ballots. In Clark County, the district's most populated county, about 31% of voters have returned theirs. Overall, early voter turnout in the district is slightly higher than the statewide rate, with roughly 30% of voters having cast their ballots, according to the Washington secretary of state.
Outside the Cowlitz County Administration Building on Thursday, voters expressed a mix of hope and anxiety as the calendar hurtles toward Election Day. All insisted they wanted genuine change for the nation, but they split on what that change should look like. Some, like Kayser, remained undecided.
In a region still grappling with a deadly tank collapse at a Longview mill, where some voters are accustomed to splitting their tickets between Republicans and Democrats, the race, for most, still felt like a true toss-up. It's a marker of the district's fierce independence that has produced a series of close congressional races. Before Gluesenkamp Perez, Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler held the seat for six terms; before her, Democrat Brian Baird held it for six terms.
Allen Gould Jr., 77, said his ballot remains sitting on a table at home. The campaign season has "been crazy," Gould said. "It's like kindergartners."
Gould, a retired logger, voted for Gluesenkamp Perez in the two previous elections. He voted for Biden in 2020, then Trump in 2024 — the kind of independent voter that both campaigns have courted aggressively. He's primarily concerned with government spending, he said, which he believes is too high. "I haven't seen enough change on that. This afternoon, I'm going over the voters pamphlet."
He'll cast his ballot soon after, he said, adding: "It's a 99% chance I'll vote for Braun."
Wayne Plocharsky, 54, said his ballot rests at the edge of his kitchen counter. His phone has been inundated with campaign texts urging him to vote for one candidate or the other, he added with a laugh.
"Hopefully I'll get to it this weekend," he said. Plocharsky, an electrical contractor, prizes independence; he didn't vote for president at all in 2024, dismayed with his options, he said. He is likely sticking with the incumbent, whom he voted for previously. "She seems to look out for all sides."
Other voters on Thursday were much more decisive.
Vicki Whitemarsh, 76, waved her property tax receipt in the air. "It's getting ridiculous," she said. The former restaurant chef said she believes taxes are too high and that Braun had responded well to her concerns when she raised them at a candidates forum. She had previously voted for Gluesenkamp Perez, but on Tuesday she mailed in her ballot for Braun.
She tucked her receipt away and bustled into her car as the sky grew gray.
Moments later, as a drizzle began, Ninna Bahiani, 71, ambled out of the Cowlitz County Administration Building. She had just cast her ballot for Gluesenkamp Perez — a vote that she says is actually a vote against President Donald Trump.
"We're in a very scary time," said Bahiani, a retired teacher. She's tired of political fixations on trans people, immigrants and communities of color.
She wants to be optimistic. The midterm election is widely forecast to favor Democrats. But here, she's not so sure.
Bahiani pursed her lips. Either way: "It's going to be a lot of work to fix this country.
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