OLYMPIA — A new statewide poll suggests the state's carbon-pricing program and recently passed energy regulations could be in trouble this November.
If two initiatives are approved by voters, they could imperil some of the state's leading environmental policies.
Initiative 2117 would shut down the state's carbon-pricing system that launched last year and has raised over $2 billion from the state's largest greenhouse gas emitters. Initiative 2066, which has not yet qualified for the ballot, would explicitly protect the use of natural gas and threaten recently passed energy regulations and laws.
In the new WA Poll, among 708 likely voters, 48% said they were certain to vote in favor of the initiative to repeal the carbon market.
Respondents also supported the two other GOP-backed ballot initiatives — Initiative 2109 to repeal the state's new capital gains tax and Initiative 2124 to allow people to opt out of a payroll tax to fund WA Cares — by margins ranging from 14 to 25 percentage points, signaling a major threat to a slate of recent policies on the environment, taxes and aging passed by majority Democrats.
Washington Democrats have held a trifecta, with control of the governor's mansion and the state House and Senate, for nearly seven years. November's ballot battle over the initiatives will test how popular their signature legislative victories are.
On the carbon market measure, 34% said they were certain to vote no — the highest "no" faction of any of the four initiatives tested. Eighteen percent were uncertain. Among the initiatives polled, repeal of the state's carbon-pricing program had the narrowest lead.
WA ballot initiative on carbon market
In 2021, legislators passed the Climate Commitment Act, which requires the state's largest polluting businesses and institutions to pay for their climate-warming emissions and puts a statewide cap on emissions that will ratchet down to near zero by 2050. In 2016 and 2018, ballot measures to get carbon taxes into state law failed.
Polling that asked voters whether they would vote to reverse regulations that discourage natural gas use and require utilities to provide natural gas to customers had the most support among the four initiatives polled. Among 708 likely voters, 54% said they were certain to vote for it, and 21% said they were certain to vote against it. A quarter were uncertain.
The initiative would roll back portions of a law meant to help Puget Sound Energy, the state's largest utility, chart a transition from natural gas, and it would threaten energy-efficiency mandates that effectively require heat pumps to be installed in lieu of fossil-fueled appliances.
The Secretary of State's Office is in the process of checking signatures that the supporters of the natural gas initiative turned in earlier this month to get the measure on the ballot. Supporters turned in more than half a million signatures.
The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, and the responses were weighted to the U.S. Census American Community Survey demographics.
Although the early results suggest trouble for supporters of the underlying climate and environment policies at stake, pollsters from SurveyUSA noted that opposition to ballot measures has tended to increase as elections get closer and "no" campaigns ramp up, exposing voters to advertising, endorsements, opinion essays and voter guide materials.
WA ballot initiative on natural gas
Opponents of both initiatives also pushed back on a pessimistic interpretation of the poll results, saying that respondents were not asked using the verbatim ballot title language and that most voters are still not fully informed on the full impacts of passing the initiatives.
Mark Prentice, spokesperson for the No on 2117 campaign, added that the carbon-pricing initiative is also likely to include information about the impact of the measures on the state budget, which he said would make voters more inclined to vote against the initiative. Pending a decision from the state's Supreme Court, the language is likely to be included on voter ballots.
Prentice acknowledged that defeating the initiative would be a "tough race," but the campaign intends to show voters the initiative would result in more pollution and traffic and less investment in clean air and water and transportation.
According to the No on 2117 campaign, over 300 organizations including tribal nations, businesses, unions and environmental groups have joined the coalition. They include Amazon, Microsoft, the Washington State Democrats and Conservation Northwest. The campaign has raised $12.8 million so far.
Critics of the state's carbon market have portrayed it as a cash grab by the state and say that it has led to higher prices for utilities, fuel and other consumer goods.
"I've never seen any evidence that what they're going to do is ... going to have a positive impact in reducing the amount of carbon dioxide," said Brian Heywood, the founder of Let's Go Washington, which is backing the initiatives.
Regarding the natural gas initiative, Caitlin Krenn, the climate and clean energy director with Washington Conservation Action, which opposes the initiative, also said the poll results likely reflect "a lot of misleading information about the policy" from the signature-gathering effort.
Supporters of the natural gas initiative have framed recent energy regulations as a precursor to a full ban on natural gas and have argued that natural gas, which is mostly methane, is essential to keep utility bills affordable.
"People do not want Olympia to ban natural gas, and legislators need to think twice, or maybe three times, before they pass harmful legislation that makes citizens pay the price," Heywood said when the initiative signatures were turned in.
Opponents of the initiative have repeatedly emphasized there is no ban on natural gas and utilities are currently already required to provide it.
"Nobody is coming to rip natural gas lines out of buildings. That's not what's happening," Krenn said.
Krenn said Initiative 2066 would "repeal or undermine a lot of areas of Washington state policy" that are "commonsense energy-efficiency policies." The initiative would also prevent families and businesses from accessing state and federal incentives that help people install heat pumps, she said.
At least two poll respondents said that while they answered "certain to vote yes" or "certain to vote no" to the survey, they did not fully understand the initiatives and intend to do more research before voting in November.
Mark Morris, a former truck driver in Lacey, Thurston County, studying to become a social worker, approved of both initiatives in the survey but hasn't had time to fully understand them.
"I'm generally for anything that helps the environment and helps keep large facilities more accountable for what they're actually doing," he said.
Steve Takahashi, a retired insurance attorney in Queen Anne, said he was under the impression there is a natural gas ban and could not remember how he responded on the survey. Takahashi said he would be supportive of a natural gas ban if experts say it is bad for the environment and if some restaurants were exempted.
The 61-year-old, who typically supports Democrats, said that while his immediate reaction to the carbon-pricing program has been one of "disappointment" due to higher gas and utility prices, he will likely support it in November.
"Typically, when the real election comes around and I get my paper ballot in the mail, I actually sit down and do research and I usually tend to vote more for the progressive position," he said.
Support for repealing the carbon-pricing program was more popular among Republicans, 56% of whom favored the initiative. Forty-seven percent of Democrats supported it and so did 44% of independents.
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