Washington's fire season has been quieter than normal, but relatively tame conditions may not last for long.
Starting next week, Eastern and Central Washington may face temperatures well past 100 degrees, and as temperatures climb, so does fire danger.
"As we've warmed up, that helps to dry everything out," said Brandon Lawhorn, a National Weather Service meteorologist. "Fire danger does go up in these times when we see the heat come up."
The increased wildfire risk comes on the heels of a mellow start to Washington's fire season, according to data from the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center.
Six Washington wildfires have burned about 7,100 acres as of Wednesday. By that date last year, 17 wildfires had torn through roughly 320,000 acres.
Even in 2020, when the early wildfire season was milder than normal, six large blazes had burned about 19,200 acres in Washington — more than double this year's acreage.
"It's been the slowest start, say, in the last decade," said John Saltenberger, a Northwest Interagency Coordination Center meteorologist.
Scientists use several metrics to understand and forecast fire danger. For windy, dry and hot Eastern Washington, Saltenberger said the burning index is particularly useful because it accounts for winds and vegetation flammability.
He said gloomy weather has kept Eastern and southeastern Washington's burning indexes largely below average so far.
"We've had a lot of cool, cloudy days in the early summer of 2022, so it just kept those moisture levels at or above average," Saltenberger said. "The more moist the fuel, the less flammable it is."
Still, campfire restrictions went into effect July 15 in Eastern Washington lands managed by the state Department of Fish & Wildlife. In Seattle and King County, meanwhile, no burn bans are currently in effect.
The state's respite from heightened fire danger isn't likely to last for long, especially with sweltering heat kicking in Tuesday.
"That looks like a potent and lengthy heat wave, which we think is going to push fire danger above average and set the stage for potentially a busier season," Saltenberger said.
