Facts always seem to be malleable in questions about gun violence.
However, often these “facts” are just opinions in wolves’ clothing. The debate touched off by letter writer Nicholas Cook’s comments about the correlation between gun violence and permitless carry laws is just another example of this.
Yet I was curious: What does the data say? What are the facts?
I very quickly found a study by the Rand Corporation, a well-established and respected think tank — even if it is known to tilt a bit to the right of things.
The Rand analysis, “Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime,” evaluated more than two dozen studies on concealed carry laws’ relationship to the rates of homicide and gun violence. What it found would disappoint Cook: The researchers could find no conclusive evidence that there was any correlation between permitless carry laws and total homicides. In less fancy terms, it means we just don’t know.
But the analysis will really disappoint Cook’s critics, like Thomas Higdon and Patrick Ely.
What it did find is that shall-issue concealed carry laws — like those this state has — contribute to increased rates of homicide, firearm homicide and violent crime. In other words, we do know that places that have shall-issue concealed laws have more gun violence than those that don’t.
This runs counter to a 1997 study that a lot of gun rights websites like to dust off and use as proof that more guns make you safer, but, as the Rand analysis highlights, that study was deeply statistically flawed. They also note that it has been followed by many much better studies that refute it. The Rand analysis is current: It was updated last month.
There is a difference here between the facts that I’m offering and those tossed out by Cook, Higdon and Ely — and a lot of others — I’m telling you where I found the information so you can check it out, evaluate it and make an informed decision.
While we might not agree on that decision, we — all of us — need to stop inventing facts or spreading half-truths just to win an argument (or an election).
Tim Wright
Tumwater
